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DreamLeague Season 24 · BO2
result vs prediction
Talon Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Phoenix
Phoenix
Ponyo · 14 games
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Akashi · 14 games
43%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Kuku · 13 games
46%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
Jhocam · 12 games
58%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Jhocam · 11 games
73%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 11 games
64%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Ponyo · 10 games
40%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Jhocam · 10 games
40%

Tundra Esports

Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Topson · 26 games
65%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 25 games
68%
Mars
Marssignature
RAMZES666 · 24 games
75%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Whitemon · 21 game
52%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Whitemon · 19 games
74%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 19 games
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 19 games
79%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
Pure~ · 18 games
72%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
359 picks · 331 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
358 picks · 483 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
326 picks · 468 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
311 picks · 600 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
291 picks · 160 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
288 picks · 344 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
265 picks · 429 bans
48%
Batrider
Batrider
248 picks · 240 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 54%
Hero pool strength57% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total81% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:30
Talon Esports 31%Tundra Esports 69%
The model gave 69% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 27:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorAkashi
48% · 105 games57% · 151 game
AlchemistNightfall
Alchemist
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMikoto
48% · 151 game49% · 46 games
HuskarLorenof
Huskar
Bristleback
BristlebackWs
48% · 73 games58% · 128 games
Sand King33
Sand King
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonJhocam
47% · 164 games47% · 249 games
PhoenixWhitemon
Phoenix
Tusk
TuskKuku
49% · 196 games46% · 115 games
MuertaSaksa
Muerta
Game 2prediction correct19:26
Talon Esports 31%Tundra Esports 69%
The model gave 69% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 33:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetAkashi
42% · 95 games47% · 357 games
MorphlingNightfall
Morphling
Elder Titan
Elder TitanWs
56% · 96 games52% · 251 game
Ember SpiritLorenof
Ember Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierMikoto
47% · 354 games55% · 77 games
Visage33
Visage
Batrider
BatriderJhocam
47% · 274 games59% · 65 games
Nyx AssassinSaksa
Nyx Assassin
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonKuku
47% · 227 games50% · 296 games
ClockwerkWhitemon
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 81%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2