DreamLeague Season 24 · BO2
result vs prediction
Palianytsialoss 0:2series probability
10%90%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Spiritwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Palianytsia
Lunasignature
Crystallize · 16 games
Leshracoften banned
QBFY · 15 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Moonlight · 15 games
Snapfire
QBFY · 14 games
Alchemistoften banned
kreker · 11 games
Dark Willow
QBFY · 10 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
fortniteMan · 9 games
Clockwerk
kreker · 8 games
Team Spirit
Elder Titansignature
Miposhka · 27 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Larl · 25 games
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 25 games
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 19 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 18 games
Sand Kingsignature
Larl · 18 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Miposhka · 18 games
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
357 picks · 329 bans
Tusk
357 picks · 480 bans
Pangolier
325 picks · 468 bans
Enchantress
310 picks · 597 bans
Snapfire
289 picks · 160 bans
Luna
285 picks · 344 bans
Dragon Knight
263 picks · 429 bans
Batrider
247 picks · 239 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 55%
Hero pool strength57% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total90% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:35
Palianytsia 22%Team Spirit 78%
The model gave 78% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 35:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendCrystallize
LunaSatanic
PangolierMoonlight
Storm SpiritLarl
DoomfortniteMan
Primal BeastMalik
SnapfireQBFY
Hoodwinkrue
Marcikreker
ClockwerkMiposhka
Game 2prediction correct19:36
Palianytsia 25%Team Spirit 75%
The model gave 75% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 31:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaCrystallize
Shadow FiendSatanic
Sand KingMoonlight
InvokerLarl
DoomfortniteMan
Primal BeastMalik
SnapfireQBFY
ClockwerkMiposhka
Marcikreker
Hoodwinkrue
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 90%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2