DreamLeague Season 24 · BO2
result vs prediction
AVULUSloss 1:1series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:1
nounsloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
AVULUS
Batridersignature
Ekki · 21 game
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 20 games
Lionsignature
Ekki · 19 games
Phoenixsignature
SoNNeikO · 19 games
Tusksignature
SoNNeikO · 18 games
Pangoliersignature
Xibbe · 17 games
Sniperoften banned
Ekki · 17 games
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 16 games
nouns
Pangolieroften banned
Gunnar · 25 games
Crystal Maiden
Fly · 24 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Lelis · 24 games
Clockwerk
Fly · 23 games
Miranasignature
Lelis · 22 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Copy · 22 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Copy · 22 games
Tuskoften banned
Lelis · 22 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
356 picks · 476 bans
Clockwerk
353 picks · 327 bans
Pangolier
325 picks · 462 bans
Enchantress
305 picks · 594 bans
Snapfire
293 picks · 161 bans
Luna
282 picks · 340 bans
Dragon Knight
264 picks · 430 bans
Batrider
245 picks · 234 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 49%
Hero pool strength57% AVULUS
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total58% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:21
AVULUS 56%nouns 44%
The model gave 56% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 47:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaSmiling Knight
AlchemistYuma
BeastmasterXibbe
Ember SpiritCopy
Earth SpiritStormstormer
VisageGunnar
Shadow DemonSoNNeikO
Crystal MaidenFly
LionEkki
TuskLelis
Game 2prediction missed22:42
AVULUS 57%nouns 43%
The model gave 57% on AVULUS — the game was taken by nouns in 48:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistSmiling Knight
Ember SpiritCopy
Earth SpiritStormstormer
UrsaYuma
DawnbreakerXibbe
Centaur WarrunnerGunnar
PhoenixSoNNeikO
MuertaLelis
Nyx AssassinEkki
EnchantressFly
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 58%
Accuracy by game1 of 2