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DreamLeague Season 24 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:0
series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Spiritloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 48 games
73%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 28 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 26 games
77%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 24 games
71%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 24 games
71%
Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 23 games
61%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 22 games
82%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Skiter · 22 games
64%

Team Spirit

Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Miposhka · 27 games
81%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Larl · 25 games
60%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 25 games
68%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 18 games
83%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 18 games
56%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Larl · 18 games
67%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Miposhka · 17 games
71%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 16 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
352 picks · 475 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
351 picks · 323 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
325 picks · 459 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
303 picks · 591 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
294 picks · 162 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
281 picks · 337 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
263 picks · 431 bans
48%
Batrider
Batrider
242 picks · 234 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% Team Falcons
Head-to-head3 – 4
Model total88% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:6
Team Falcons 74%Team Spirit 26%
The model gave 74% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 35:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerATF
52% · 43 games51% · 125 games
Shadow FiendSatanic
Shadow Fiend
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSkiter
51% · 317 games48% · 182 games
Ember SpiritLarl
Ember Spirit
Sand King
Sand KingMalr1ne
58% · 133 games49% · 236 games
MarsMalik
Mars
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCr1t-
46% · 391 game52% · 245 games
BatriderMiposhka
Batrider
Pugna
PugnaSneyking
44% · 118 games49% · 214 games
Shadow Demonrue
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct34:24
Team Falcons 74%Team Spirit 26%
The model gave 74% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 1:00:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenSkiter
45% · 197 games46% · 236 games
MorphlingSatanic
Morphling
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritMalr1ne
50% · 112 games58% · 160 games
KunkkaMalik
Kunkka
Broodmother
BroodmotherATF
45% · 66 games57% · 130 games
InvokerLarl
Invoker
Pugna
PugnaSneyking
48% · 133 games52% · 183 games
ClockwerkMiposhka
Clockwerk
Batrider
BatriderCr1t-
50% · 284 games48% · 83 games
Muertarue
Muerta
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 88%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2