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DreamLeague Season 24 · BO2
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 2:0
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Azure Rayloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Phoenix
Phoenix
Ponyo · 14 games
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Akashi · 13 games
38%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Kuku · 12 games
42%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
Jhocam · 12 games
58%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Jhocam · 11 games
73%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Jhocam · 10 games
40%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 10 games
60%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Ws · 10 games
80%

Azure Ray

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Fantasy · 21 game
52%
Batrider
Batrider
Fantasy · 12 games
25%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
lou · 12 games
42%
Sven
Svenoften banned
lou · 12 games
42%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Faith_bian · 11 games
45%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
fy · 11 games
18%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Ori · 11 games
64%
Snapfire
Snapfire
fy · 11 games
36%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
352 picks · 475 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
351 picks · 323 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
325 picks · 459 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
303 picks · 591 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
294 picks · 162 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
281 picks · 337 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
263 picks · 431 bans
48%
Batrider
Batrider
242 picks · 234 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 61%
Hero pool strength54% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total56% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:33
Talon Esports 54%Azure Ray 46%
The model gave 54% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 1:27:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckMikoto
52% · 211 games50% · 187 games
Razorlou
Razor
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterAkashi
48% · 223 games53% · 221 game
Doomniu
Doom
Night Stalker
Night StalkerWs
48% · 38 games51% · 319 games
HoodwinkpLAnet
Hoodwink
Enchantress
EnchantressKuku
52% · 303 games40% · 231 game
TuskFantasy
Tusk
Lion
LionJhocam
57% · 183 games
Game 2prediction correct13:9
Talon Esports 52%Azure Ray 48%
The model gave 52% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 27:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendAkashi
50% · 119 games51% · 231 game
Lunalou
Luna
Invoker
InvokerMikoto
49% · 138 games48% · 168 games
Brewmasterniu
Brewmaster
Primal Beast
Primal BeastWs
53% · 257 games53% · 276 games
HoodwinkpLAnet
Hoodwink
Pugna
PugnaJhocam
52% · 129 games48% · 242 games
TuskFantasy
Tusk
Clockwerk
ClockwerkKuku
48% · 274 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 56%
Series resultTalon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2