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DreamLeague Season 24 · BO2
result vs prediction
Heroicloss 0:2
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 25 games
60%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Scofield · 25 games
60%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Scofield · 19 games
58%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Scofield · 17 games
71%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
KJ · 15 games
67%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
K1 · 14 games
79%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
4nalog · 14 games
71%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Davai · 13 games
54%

Tundra Esports

Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Topson · 26 games
65%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 25 games
68%
Mars
Marssignature
RAMZES666 · 24 games
75%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Whitemon · 21 game
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 19 games
79%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
Pure~ · 18 games
72%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Whitemon · 18 games
72%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 18 games
61%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
352 picks · 475 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
351 picks · 323 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
325 picks · 459 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
303 picks · 591 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
294 picks · 162 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
281 picks · 337 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
263 picks · 431 bans
48%
Batrider
Batrider
242 picks · 234 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 53%
Hero pool strength53% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head4 – 2
Model total70% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:40
Heroic 39%Tundra Esports 61%
The model gave 61% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 48:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterParker
48% · 233 games46% · 90 games
Bristleback33
Bristleback
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit4nalog
56% · 166 games56% · 197 games
TimbersawLorenof
Timbersaw
Sand King
Sand KingDavai
51% · 119 games50% · 137 games
AlchemistNightfall
Alchemist
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorKJ
44% · 33 games50% · 238 games
EnchantressWhitemon
Enchantress
Tusk
TuskScofield
38% · 230 games60% · 119 games
LionSaksa
Lion
Game 2prediction correct15:31
Heroic 39%Tundra Esports 61%
The model gave 61% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 32:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
Pangolier4nalog
50% · 264 games54% · 267 games
TimbersawLorenof
Timbersaw
Sand King
Sand KingDavai
53% · 120 games44% · 117 games
UrsaNightfall
Ursa
Morphling
MorphlingParker
43% · 213 games48% · 111 games
Bristleback33
Bristleback
Muerta
MuertaScofield
50% · 74 games55% · 117 games
Nyx AssassinSaksa
Nyx Assassin
Enchantress
EnchantressKJ
52% · 259 games50% · 318 games
Shadow DemonWhitemon
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 70%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2