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DreamLeague Season 24 · BO2
result vs prediction
AVULUSloss 1:1
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Liquidloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 21 game
76%
Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 20 games
65%
Lion
Lionsignature
Ekki · 18 games
78%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
SoNNeikO · 18 games
78%
Tusk
Tusksignature
SoNNeikO · 18 games
72%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xibbe · 17 games
76%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
Ekki · 17 games
59%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 16 games
75%

Team Liquid

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 22 games
45%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Nisha · 21 game
76%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 20 games
60%
Razor
Razorsignature
miCKe · 20 games
75%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 19 games
74%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
iNSaNiA · 19 games
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Boxi · 18 games
61%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 17 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
350 picks · 471 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
349 picks · 321 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
324 picks · 458 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
301 picks · 586 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
296 picks · 164 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
277 picks · 336 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
265 picks · 431 bans
48%
Windranger
Windranger
244 picks · 356 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 56%
Hero pool strength53% AVULUS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:36
AVULUS 54%Team Liquid 46%
The model gave 54% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 1:07:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
BroodmotherSmiling Knight
44% · 74 games47% · 164 games
LunamiCKe
Luna
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritStormstormer
55% · 190 games44% · 148 games
DoomSabeRLight-
Doom
Underlord
UnderlordXibbe
50% · 66 games52% · 58 games
Earth SpiritNisha
Earth Spirit
Chen
ChenSoNNeikO
56% · 101 game41% · 70 games
PugnaBoxi
Pugna
Lion
LionEkki
51% · 211 games56% · 202 games
Shadow DemoniNSaNiA
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction missed11:33
AVULUS 56%Team Liquid 44%
The model gave 56% on AVULUS — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 28:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistSmiling Knight
53% · 112 games49% · 80 games
Shadow FiendmiCKe
Shadow Fiend
Earthshaker
EarthshakerStormstormer
58% · 44 games49% · 223 games
PuckNisha
Puck
Tidehunter
TidehunterXibbe
42% · 38 games47% · 147 games
BeastmasterSabeRLight-
Beastmaster
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonEkki
62% · 169 games47% · 110 games
MuertaBoxi
Muerta
Phoenix
PhoenixSoNNeikO
47% · 207 games39% · 10 games
Ogre MagiiNSaNiA
Ogre Magi
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 57%
Accuracy by game1 of 2