DreamLeague Season 24 · BO2
result vs prediction
nounsloss 0:2series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
PARIVISIONwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
nouns
Crystal Maiden
Fly · 24 games
Pangolieroften banned
Gunnar · 24 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Lelis · 24 games
Clockwerk
Fly · 23 games
Miranasignature
Lelis · 22 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Copy · 22 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Copy · 22 games
Phoenix
Fly · 21 game
PARIVISION
Bristlebackoften banned
DM · 4 games
Invokeroften banned
No[o]ne · 4 games
Alchemistoften banned
Crystallis · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 3 games
Clockwerk
Dukalis · 3 games
Dark Seer
DM · 3 games
Dark Willow
9Class · 3 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Crystallis · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
350 picks · 471 bans
Clockwerk
349 picks · 321 bans
Pangolier
324 picks · 458 bans
Enchantress
301 picks · 586 bans
Snapfire
296 picks · 164 bans
Luna
277 picks · 336 bans
Dragon Knight
265 picks · 431 bans
Windranger
244 picks · 356 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 60%
Hero pool strength52% PARIVISION
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:31
nouns 41%PARIVISION 59%
The model gave 59% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 26:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendYuma
Monkey KingCrystallis
PangolierCopy
Earth SpiritNo[o]ne
DoomGunnar
BroodmotherDM
PugnaFly
Batrider9Class
TuskLelis
EnchantressDukalis
Game 2prediction correct15:28
nouns 42%PARIVISION 58%
The model gave 58% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 36:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistYuma
MedusaCrystallis
PuckCopy
Monkey KingNo[o]ne
DoomGunnar
PangolierDM
EnchantressFly
Batrider9Class
Dark WillowLelis
Crystal MaidenDukalis
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 62%
Series resultPARIVISION 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2