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DreamLeague Season 24 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 1:1
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Looking for Orgloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Miposhka · 26 games
85%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Larl · 25 games
60%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 24 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 18 games
56%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Larl · 18 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 17 games
82%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Miposhka · 17 games
71%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 16 games
69%

Looking for Org

Mars
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 14 games
36%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Matthew · 13 games
54%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Yadomi · 12 games
42%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Mnz · 11 games
36%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Sacred · 9 games
56%
Luna
Lunasignature
Mnz · 9 games
67%
Omniknight
Omniknightoften banned
Yadomi · 8 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Matthew · 8 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
352 picks · 324 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
350 picks · 470 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
331 picks · 465 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
305 picks · 593 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
303 picks · 174 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
277 picks · 335 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
268 picks · 441 bans
48%
Windranger
Windranger
249 picks · 357 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 54%
Hero pool strength59% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:32
Team Spirit 56%Looking for Org 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Looking for Org in 50:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaSatanic
48% · 121 game50% · 172 games
Dragon Knightpayk
Dragon Knight
Bristleback
BristlebackMalik
54% · 112 games56% · 132 games
Primal BeastSacred
Primal Beast
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritLarl
41% · 109 games48% · 159 games
MarsDarkMago
Mars
Elder Titan
Elder TitanMiposhka
45% · 119 games55% · 67 games
PugnaMatthew
Pugna
Lion
Lionrue
49% · 225 games54% · 156 games
Dark WillowYadomi
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct26:8
Team Spirit 55%Looking for Org 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 35:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendSatanic
47% · 131 game48% · 137 games
Muertapayk
Muerta
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerMalik
56% · 246 games48% · 249 games
BeastmasterSacred
Beastmaster
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLarl
50% · 144 games48% · 165 games
InvokerDarkMago
Invoker
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkrue
53% · 217 games48% · 290 games
GyrocopterMatthew
Gyrocopter
Clockwerk
ClockwerkMiposhka
51% · 249 games52% · 146 games
Elder TitanYadomi
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 56%
Accuracy by game1 of 2