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RES Regional Champions: Belgrade · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONloss 0:2
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:2
AVULUSwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Crystallis · 3 games
67%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
DM · 3 games
33%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
9Class · 3 games
100%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
No[o]ne · 3 games
100%
Batrider
Batrider
9Class · 2 games
100%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 2 games
100%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Dukalis · 2 games
100%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Dukalis · 2 games
100%

AVULUS

Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 21 game
76%
Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 19 games
63%
Lion
Lionsignature
Ekki · 17 games
82%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xibbe · 17 games
76%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
Ekki · 17 games
59%
Tusk
Tusksignature
SoNNeikO · 17 games
76%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Smiling Knight · 16 games
69%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 15 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
357 picks · 314 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
341 picks · 484 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
341 picks · 463 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
321 picks · 204 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
317 picks · 597 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
282 picks · 456 bans
48%
Luna
Luna
268 picks · 331 bans
57%
Windranger
Windranger
261 picks · 365 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 69%
Hero pool strength53% AVULUS
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total59% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:25
PARIVISION 54%AVULUS 46%
The model gave 54% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by AVULUS in 45:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
InvokerNo[o]ne
51% · 117 games49% · 133 games
PuckStormstormer
Puck
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendCrystallis
53% · 123 games60% · 102 games
AlchemistSmiling Knight
Alchemist
Dark Seer
Dark SeerDM
43% · 145 games53% · 17 games
DawnbreakerXibbe
Dawnbreaker
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage9Class
46% · 30 games56% · 219 games
HoodwinkEkki
Hoodwink
Clockwerk
ClockwerkDukalis
46% · 244 games44% · 188 games
PhoenixSoNNeikO
Phoenix
Game 2prediction missed11:28
PARIVISION 52%AVULUS 48%
The model gave 52% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by AVULUS in 34:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckNo[o]ne
56% · 131 game52% · 68 games
BristlebackSmiling Knight
Bristleback
Morphling
MorphlingCrystallis
43% · 168 games52% · 113 games
InvokerStormstormer
Invoker
Beastmaster
BeastmasterDM
47% · 116 games52% · 61 game
TidehunterXibbe
Tidehunter
Lion
Lion9Class
44% · 105 games50% · 248 games
PhoenixSoNNeikO
Phoenix
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiDukalis
51% · 10 games57% · 40 games
Nyx AssassinEkki
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 59%
Series resultAVULUS 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2