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BetBoom Dacha Dota 2 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Falconswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 25 games
64%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Topson · 25 games
64%
Mars
Marssignature
RAMZES666 · 24 games
75%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Whitemon · 19 games
58%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Whitemon · 17 games
76%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Saksa · 17 games
59%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Pure~ · 16 games
44%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Topson · 16 games
88%

Team Falcons

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 47 games
70%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 27 games
78%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 26 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 26 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 24 games
71%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 23 games
83%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Skiter · 23 games
78%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Skiter · 21 game
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
358 picks · 312 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
345 picks · 484 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
340 picks · 463 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
324 picks · 209 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
318 picks · 600 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
284 picks · 458 bans
48%
Luna
Luna
268 picks · 331 bans
57%
Windranger
Windranger
263 picks · 365 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 69%
Hero pool strength51% Team Falcons
Head-to-head3 – 6
Model total70% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:36
Tundra Esports 39%Team Falcons 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 51:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterNightfall
51% · 211 games50% · 100 games
Monkey KingMalr1ne
Monkey King
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLorenof
56% · 162 games51% · 132 games
RazorATF
Razor
Viper
Viper33
45% · 64 games49% · 121 game
AlchemistSkiter
Alchemist
Muerta
MuertaSaksa
47% · 85 games61% · 130 games
LionCr1t-
Lion
Tusk
TuskWhitemon
40% · 186 games49% · 225 games
EnchantressSneyking
Enchantress
Game 2prediction missed26:22
Tundra Esports 38%Team Falcons 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 53:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaNightfall
48% · 88 games48% · 104 games
AlchemistSkiter
Alchemist
Sand King
Sand King33
49% · 107 games45% · 62 games
SniperMalr1ne
Sniper
Viper
ViperLorenof
50% · 30 games50% · 133 games
Primal BeastATF
Primal Beast
Chen
ChenWhitemon
55% · 110 games54% · 47 games
MuertaCr1t-
Muerta
Lion
LionSaksa
50% · 159 games51% · 148 games
Crystal MaidenSneyking
Crystal Maiden
Game 3prediction correct8:29
Tundra Esports 39%Team Falcons 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 40:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendNightfall
48% · 114 games49% · 108 games
GyrocopterSkiter
Gyrocopter
Broodmother
Broodmother33
48% · 63 games44% · 63 games
RazorATF
Razor
Invoker
InvokerLorenof
54% · 126 games51% · 64 games
Earth SpiritMalr1ne
Earth Spirit
Muerta
MuertaSaksa
46% · 100 games55% · 78 games
Naga SirenSneyking
Naga Siren
Omniknight
OmniknightWhitemon
56% · 53 games50% · 143 games
HoodwinkCr1t-
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 70%
Series resultTeam Falcons 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3