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RES Regional Champions: Belgrade · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPloss 1:2
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Alliancewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Level UP

Rubick
Rubick
Jeezy · 12 games
33%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
SsaSpartan · 9 games
22%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Jeezy · 9 games
33%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Focus · 9 games
44%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Jeezy · 8 games
38%
Puck
Puckoften banned
MaTson · 7 games
29%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
MaTson · 7 games
43%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Wuiter · 6 games
50%

Alliance

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Kidaro · 22 games
59%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Nande · 20 games
50%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
dEsire · 20 games
75%
Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 20 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Mo13ei · 19 games
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mo13ei · 15 games
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Palantimos · 14 games
50%
Visage
Visageoften banned
Palantimos · 13 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
347 picks · 307 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
344 picks · 471 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
335 picks · 458 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
324 picks · 209 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
315 picks · 584 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
281 picks · 458 bans
47%
Windranger
Windranger
263 picks · 365 bans
52%
Luna
Luna
262 picks · 327 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 38%
Hero pool strength57% Alliance
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Alliance
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:34
Level UP 32%Alliance 68%
The model gave 68% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 30:56.
Game 2prediction missed29:33
Level UP 32%Alliance 68%
The model gave 68% on Alliance — the game was taken by Level UP in 44:32.
Game 3prediction correct37:23
Level UP 32%Alliance 68%
The model gave 68% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 41:12.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance · 68%
Series resultAlliance 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3