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BetBoom Dacha Dota 2 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 0:2
series probability
15%85%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Falconswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Miposhka · 27 games
81%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Larl · 26 games
58%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 23 games
65%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 19 games
58%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 17 games
82%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Miposhka · 17 games
71%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Larl · 16 games
75%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 16 games
69%

Team Falcons

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 51 game
71%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Malr1ne · 29 games
76%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 28 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 27 games
52%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 26 games
65%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 25 games
84%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Skiter · 24 games
79%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Skiter · 22 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
346 picks · 307 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
343 picks · 470 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
335 picks · 457 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
323 picks · 209 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
315 picks · 582 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
281 picks · 458 bans
47%
Windranger
Windranger
263 picks · 365 bans
52%
Luna
Luna
262 picks · 327 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 68%
Hero pool strength50% Team Falcons
Head-to-head4 – 2
Model total85% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:46
Team Spirit 29%Team Falcons 71%
The model gave 71% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 56:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckLarl
54% · 214 games47% · 185 games
BeastmasterATF
Beastmaster
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendSatanic
52% · 142 games49% · 147 games
RazorSkiter
Razor
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMalik
53% · 236 games48% · 51 game
EarthshakerMalr1ne
Earthshaker
Snapfire
Snapfirerue
48% · 244 games46% · 296 games
HoodwinkCr1t-
Hoodwink
Marci
MarciMiposhka
48% · 116 games54% · 273 games
ClockwerkSneyking
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct19:40
Team Spirit 29%Team Falcons 71%
The model gave 71% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 52:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingSatanic
51% · 172 games51% · 69 games
BristlebackATF
Bristleback
Sand King
Sand KingLarl
51% · 95 games48% · 96 games
MuertaCr1t-
Muerta
Pangolier
PangolierMalik
51% · 245 games44% · 83 games
Earth SpiritMalr1ne
Earth Spirit
Marci
MarciMiposhka
47% · 107 games55% · 152 games
AlchemistSkiter
Alchemist
Pugna
Pugnarue
50% · 109 games50% · 328 games
PhoenixSneyking
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 85%
Series resultTeam Falcons 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2