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BetBoom Dacha Dota 2 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:0
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Liquidloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 51 game
71%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Malr1ne · 29 games
76%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 28 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 27 games
52%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 26 games
65%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 23 games
83%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Skiter · 23 games
78%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Skiter · 22 games
73%

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tinysignature
Nisha · 22 games
73%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 21 game
43%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 20 games
75%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 18 games
61%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
33 · 18 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
iNSaNiA · 18 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Boxi · 18 games
61%
Razor
Razorsignature
miCKe · 18 games
83%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
345 picks · 305 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
343 picks · 468 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
333 picks · 456 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
322 picks · 209 bans
51%
Enchantress
Enchantress
315 picks · 579 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
281 picks · 458 bans
47%
Windranger
Windranger
263 picks · 366 bans
52%
Luna
Luna
261 picks · 327 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 63%
Hero pool strength53% Team Falcons
Head-to-head5 – 3
Model total70% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:32
Team Falcons 61%Team Liquid 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 1:06:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingMalr1ne
62% · 124 games36% · 177 games
RazormiCKe
Razor
Weaver
WeaverSkiter
53% · 196 games50% · 181 game
BeastmasterSabeRLight-
Beastmaster
Doom
DoomATF
47% · 202 games57% · 188 games
Storm SpiritNisha
Storm Spirit
Pugna
PugnaSneyking
47% · 97 games49% · 295 games
HoodwinkBoxi
Hoodwink
Batrider
BatriderCr1t-
52% · 283 games49% · 61 game
OmniknightiNSaNiA
Omniknight
Game 2prediction correct30:20
Team Falcons 60%Team Liquid 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 41:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Huskar
HuskarMalr1ne
51% · 27 games41% · 106 games
RazormiCKe
Razor
Alchemist
AlchemistSkiter
52% · 87 games61% · 113 games
Storm SpiritNisha
Storm Spirit
Doom
DoomATF
54% · 139 games48% · 34 games
Night StalkerSabeRLight-
Night Stalker
Muerta
MuertaCr1t-
43% · 61 game38% · 12 games
Witch DoctoriNSaNiA
Witch Doctor
Pugna
PugnaSneyking
49% · 71 game51% · 120 games
SnapfireBoxi
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 70%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2