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RES Regional Champions: Belgrade · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONloss 1:2
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:2
AVULUSwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 1 game
100%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Dukalis · 1 game
100%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
9Class · 1 game
100%
Dazzle
Dazzleoften banned
DM · 1 game
100%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Dukalis · 1 game
100%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
No[o]ne · 1 game
100%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Crystallis · 1 game
100%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Crystallis · 1 game
100%

AVULUS

Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 21 game
76%
Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 19 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xibbe · 17 games
76%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
Ekki · 17 games
59%
Tusk
Tusksignature
SoNNeikO · 16 games
81%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Smiling Knight · 16 games
69%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 15 games
73%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
SoNNeikO · 14 games
79%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
345 picks · 304 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
343 picks · 465 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
332 picks · 454 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
322 picks · 209 bans
51%
Enchantress
Enchantress
314 picks · 577 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
279 picks · 457 bans
47%
Windranger
Windranger
263 picks · 366 bans
52%
Luna
Luna
261 picks · 327 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 67%
Hero pool strength56% AVULUS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:33
PARIVISION 49%AVULUS 51%
The model gave 51% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 35:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackDM
55% · 102 games45% · 170 games
Dragon KnightSmiling Knight
Dragon Knight
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendCrystallis
50% · 104 games57% · 108 games
InvokerStormstormer
Invoker
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNo[o]ne
47% · 131 game50% · 86 games
EnigmaXibbe
Enigma
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter9Class
42% · 21 game55% · 165 games
EnchantressSoNNeikO
Enchantress
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterDukalis
47% · 254 games45% · 83 games
LionEkki
Lion
Game 2prediction missed29:8
PARIVISION 49%AVULUS 51%
The model gave 51% on AVULUS — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 37:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorCrystallis
42% · 125 games57% · 87 games
InvokerStormstormer
Invoker
Beastmaster
BeastmasterDM
44% · 155 games57% · 88 games
Shadow FiendSmiling Knight
Shadow Fiend
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritNo[o]ne
48% · 83 games58% · 126 games
BrewmasterXibbe
Brewmaster
Dark Willow
Dark Willow9Class
43% · 212 games52% · 200 games
TuskSoNNeikO
Tusk
Lich
LichDukalis
49% · 22 games54% · 96 games
LionEkki
Lion
Game 3prediction correct19:36
PARIVISION 50%AVULUS 50%
The model gave 50% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 43:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistCrystallis
52% · 182 games46% · 192 games
Dragon KnightSmiling Knight
Dragon Knight
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNo[o]ne
48% · 232 games41% · 118 games
BeastmasterXibbe
Beastmaster
Bristleback
BristlebackDM
56% · 73 games55% · 163 games
Storm SpiritStormstormer
Storm Spirit
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon9Class
53% · 296 games45% · 176 games
PhoenixSoNNeikO
Phoenix
Lich
LichDukalis
58% · 25 games50% · 159 games
LionEkki
Lion
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 53%
Series resultAVULUS 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3