RES Regional Champions: Belgrade · BO3
result vs prediction
Team 123loss 1:2series probability
15%85%
probability at match start · final 1:2
LFLooking for Orgwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team 123
No games played over 6 months.
Looking for Org
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 13 games
Snapfire
Matthew · 13 games
Enchantressoften banned
Yadomi · 12 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Mnz · 11 games
Lunasignature
Mnz · 9 games
Doomoften banned
Sacred · 8 games
Omniknightoften banned
Yadomi · 7 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Matthew · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
344 picks · 301 bans
Pangolier
342 picks · 463 bans
Tusk
332 picks · 450 bans
Snapfire
320 picks · 209 bans
Enchantress
314 picks · 572 bans
Dragon Knight
279 picks · 457 bans
Windranger
263 picks · 366 bans
Luna
260 picks · 325 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 54%
Hero pool strength51% Looking for Org
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% Looking for Org
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:25
Team 123 15%Looking for Org 85%
The model gave 85% on Looking for Org — the game was taken by Looking for Org in 38:29.
Game 2prediction missed29:13
Team 123 15%Looking for Org 85%
The model gave 85% on Looking for Org — the game was taken by Team 123 in 35:45.
Game 3prediction correct7:29
Team 123 15%Looking for Org 85%
The model gave 85% on Looking for Org — the game was taken by Looking for Org in 27:41.
Model check result
Model favoriteLooking for Org · 85%
Series resultLooking for Org 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3