?
arrow_backBack to match
BetBoom Dacha Dota 2 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
MOUZloss 0:2
series probability
11%89%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
bengan · 40 games
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 31 game
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
bengan · 31 game
58%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 30 games
63%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 28 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NARMAN · 28 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Force · 25 games
28%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
NARMAN · 24 games
54%

Tundra Esports

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 26 games
62%
Mars
Marssignature
RAMZES666 · 24 games
75%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Topson · 23 games
65%
Rubick
Rubick
9Class · 21 game
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 19 games
63%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pure~ · 18 games
50%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Whitemon · 18 games
56%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Whitemon · 17 games
76%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Pangolier
Pangolier
339 picks · 457 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
325 picks · 231 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
324 picks · 277 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
310 picks · 430 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
306 picks · 556 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
285 picks · 459 bans
46%
Windranger
Windranger
268 picks · 387 bans
53%
Sand King
Sand King
258 picks · 772 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 55%
Hero pool strength55% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total89% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:39
MOUZ 25%Tundra Esports 75%
The model gave 75% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 41:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaUlnit
39% · 70 games47% · 154 games
Ember SpiritLorenof
Ember Spirit
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSupream^
60% · 158 games45% · 95 games
UrsaNightfall
Ursa
Dark Seer
Dark SeerForce
52% · 153 games45% · 80 games
Sand King33
Sand King
Naga Siren
Naga SirenImmersion
58% · 100 games44% · 54 games
Death ProphetSaksa
Death Prophet
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightNARMAN
57% · 84 games50% · 182 games
ClockwerkWhitemon
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct30:29
MOUZ 25%Tundra Esports 75%
The model gave 75% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 43:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingUlnit
50% · 235 games48% · 237 games
GyrocopterNightfall
Gyrocopter
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainSupream^
39% · 46 games55% · 79 games
Bristleback33
Bristleback
Timbersaw
TimbersawForce
51% · 217 games46% · 126 games
InvokerLorenof
Invoker
Naga Siren
Naga SirenImmersion
59% · 108 games49% · 109 games
MuertaSaksa
Muerta
Clockwerk
ClockwerkNARMAN
50% · 206 games50% · 261 game
Crystal MaidenWhitemon
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 89%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2