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European Pro League Season 20 · BO3
result vs prediction
DMSwin 2:0
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Dragon Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

DMS

Batrider
Batrider
aik · 16 games
50%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
mellojul · 12 games
75%
Tusk
Tusksignature
prblms · 11 games
64%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Hduo · 10 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Daxak · 9 games
44%
Jakiro
Jakiro
aik · 9 games
44%
Snapfire
Snapfire
prblms · 9 games
56%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
prblms · 9 games
44%

Dragon Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
dualrazee · 22 games
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
paw · 16 games
63%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
lil pleb · 16 games
13%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 14 games
57%
Medusa
Medusasignature
lil pleb · 13 games
62%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Mary_y · 13 games
54%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
dualrazee · 12 games
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
dualrazee · 11 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Pangolier
Pangolier
336 picks · 451 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
325 picks · 246 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
307 picks · 264 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
303 picks · 544 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
298 picks · 412 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
287 picks · 461 bans
46%
Windranger
Windranger
274 picks · 391 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
269 picks · 226 bans
43%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 49%
Hero pool strength53% DMS
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total57% DMS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:20
DMS 53%Dragon Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on DMS — the game was taken by DMS in 48:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemistrincyq
53% · 163 games52% · 36 games
Medusalil pleb
Medusa
Earthshaker
Earthshakermellojul
49% · 58 games51% · 126 games
Puckdualrazee
Puck
Enigma
EnigmaDaxak
58% · 146 games46% · 72 games
BeastmasterInfernal
Beastmaster
Muerta
Muertaprblms
46% · 111 games46% · 132 games
PhoenixMary_y
Phoenix
Lich
LichHduo
55% · 17 games46% · 129 games
Clockwerkxsvampire
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct37:20
DMS 53%Dragon Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on DMS — the game was taken by DMS in 44:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemistrincyq
46% · 152 games45% · 56 games
Queen of Paindualrazee
Queen of Pain
Dazzle
DazzleDaxak
45% · 34 games62% · 60 games
Shadow Fiendlil pleb
Shadow Fiend
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritmellojul
50% · 56 games55% · 232 games
Centaur WarrunnerInfernal
Centaur Warrunner
Muerta
Muertaprblms
49% · 69 games45% · 154 games
Hoodwinkxsvampire
Hoodwink
Phoenix
PhoenixHduo
43% · 224 games66% · 33 games
OmniknightMary_y
Omniknight
Model check result
Model favoriteDMS · 57%
Series resultDMS 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2