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CCT Series 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 1:2
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Dragon Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Lion
Lion
Riddys · 35 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 23 games
57%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 23 games
65%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 20 games
65%
Rubick
Rubick
Daze · 17 games
59%
Lifestealer
Lifestealersignature
gotthejuice · 16 games
63%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Daze · 15 games
53%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
pma · 13 games
62%

Dragon Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
dualrazee · 21 game
52%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
lil pleb · 16 games
13%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
paw · 15 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 14 games
57%
Medusa
Medusasignature
lil pleb · 13 games
62%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Mary_y · 12 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
dualrazee · 11 games
45%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
dualrazee · 11 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Pangolier
Pangolier
335 picks · 452 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
325 picks · 248 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
307 picks · 263 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
304 picks · 544 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
299 picks · 410 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
287 picks · 461 bans
46%
Windranger
Windranger
274 picks · 393 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
271 picks · 227 bans
43%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 48%
Hero pool strength56% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total63% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:26
Natus Vincere Junior 55%Dragon Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 42:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendgotthejuice
45% · 68 games50% · 280 games
Puckdualrazee
Puck
Tiny
TinyNiku
52% · 232 games61% · 15 games
Drow Rangerlil pleb
Drow Ranger
Pangolier
Pangolierpma
41% · 279 games53% · 124 games
EnigmaInfernal
Enigma
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorRiddys
51% · 77 games58% · 289 games
Shadow Demonxsvampire
Shadow Demon
Dark Willow
Dark WillowDaze
49% · 161 game49% · 109 games
Elder TitanMary_y
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction missed8:25
Natus Vincere Junior 58%Dragon Esports 42%
The model gave 58% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 37:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlinggotthejuice
47% · 256 games52% · 329 games
Lunalil pleb
Luna
Timbersaw
TimbersawNiku
54% · 257 games47% · 132 games
Invokerdualrazee
Invoker
Sand King
Sand Kingpma
54% · 109 games52% · 141 game
EnigmaInfernal
Enigma
Naga Siren
Naga SirenRiddys
55% · 169 games51% · 261 game
Clockwerkxsvampire
Clockwerk
Rubick
RubickDaze
47% · 281 game41% · 209 games
TuskMary_y
Tusk
Game 3prediction missed23:35
Natus Vincere Junior 57%Dragon Esports 43%
The model gave 57% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 40:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
Timbersawpma
49% · 209 games51% · 251 game
Gyrocopterlil pleb
Gyrocopter
Sven
Svengotthejuice
47% · 246 games52% · 153 games
BrewmasterInfernal
Brewmaster
Monkey King
Monkey KingNiku
51% · 140 games46% · 329 games
Pangolierdualrazee
Pangolier
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonDaze
52% · 275 games49% · 47 games
Nyx Assassinxsvampire
Nyx Assassin
Lich
LichRiddys
55% · 14 games53% · 104 games
Naga SirenMary_y
Naga Siren
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 63%
Series resultDragon Esports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3