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European Pro League Season 20 · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPloss 1:2
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Dragon Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Level UP

Rubick
Rubick
Jeezy · 10 games
30%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
SsaSpartan · 8 games
13%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Jeezy · 7 games
29%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
xsvampire · 6 games
33%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Focus · 6 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
MaTson · 6 games
33%
Doom
Doomoften banned
ififall · 5 games
20%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
MaTson · 5 games
60%

Dragon Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
dualrazee · 20 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
lil pleb · 16 games
13%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
paw · 13 games
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 12 games
50%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Mary_y · 12 games
50%
Medusa
Medusasignature
lil pleb · 11 games
64%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
paw · 11 games
36%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
dualrazee · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Pangolier
Pangolier
337 picks · 449 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
330 picks · 254 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
307 picks · 261 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
304 picks · 548 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
298 picks · 406 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
287 picks · 462 bans
46%
Jakiro
Jakiro
276 picks · 232 bans
43%
Windranger
Windranger
275 picks · 398 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 44%
Hero pool strength54% Dragon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total55% Dragon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed45:16
Level UP 46%Dragon Esports 54%
The model gave 54% on Dragon Esports — the game was taken by Level UP in 43:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaFocus
52% · 201 game52% · 117 games
Medusalil pleb
Medusa
Earthshaker
EarthshakerMaTson
49% · 43 games49% · 121 game
Invokerdualrazee
Invoker
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightJeezy
44% · 81 game54% · 77 games
Sand KingInfernal
Sand King
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerWuiter
53% · 238 games47% · 237 games
Dark Willowxsvampire
Dark Willow
Tusk
TuskSsaSpartan
49% · 233 games49% · 244 games
PhoenixMary_y
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct28:39
Level UP 48%Dragon Esports 52%
The model gave 52% on Dragon Esports — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 40:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendFocus
57% · 83 games47% · 217 games
Gyrocopterlil pleb
Gyrocopter
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMaTson
42% · 58 games47% · 188 games
Puckdualrazee
Puck
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerWuiter
49% · 42 games53% · 171 game
DoomInfernal
Doom
Rubick
RubickJeezy
49% · 275 games49% · 57 games
Muertaxsvampire
Muerta
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSsaSpartan
53% · 276 games54% · 101 game
Naga SirenMary_y
Naga Siren
Game 3prediction correct13:28
Level UP 46%Dragon Esports 54%
The model gave 54% on Dragon Esports — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 26:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaFocus
55% · 240 games47% · 79 games
Shadow Fiendlil pleb
Shadow Fiend
Doom
DoomWuiter
48% · 226 games51% · 365 games
Pangolierdualrazee
Pangolier
Invoker
InvokerMaTson
54% · 129 games45% · 118 games
BeastmasterInfernal
Beastmaster
Marci
MarciSsaSpartan
50% · 132 games47% · 268 games
Rubickxsvampire
Rubick
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeJeezy
56% · 165 games46% · 62 games
OmniknightMary_y
Omniknight
Model check result
Model favoriteDragon Esports · 55%
Series resultDragon Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3