?
arrow_backBack to match
European Pro League Season 20 · BO3
result vs prediction
Dragon Esportswin 2:0
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hydraloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Dragon Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
dualrazee · 19 games
47%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
lil pleb · 16 games
13%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
paw · 13 games
54%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Mary_y · 12 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Norma · 11 games
45%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
paw · 11 games
36%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Infernal · 10 games
50%
Medusa
Medusasignature
lil pleb · 10 games
60%

Hydra

Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
selfhate · 6 games
50%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Actor · 6 games
33%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
ani-san · 5 games
60%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Actor · 4 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Ethereal · 4 games
75%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Ethereal · 4 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
ani-san · 4 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
ani-san · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Pangolier
Pangolier
336 picks · 445 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
327 picks · 258 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
305 picks · 258 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
304 picks · 547 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
297 picks · 403 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
287 picks · 462 bans
46%
Jakiro
Jakiro
277 picks · 233 bans
43%
Windranger
Windranger
276 picks · 399 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 48%
Hero pool strength53% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:14
Dragon Esports 47%Hydra 53%
The model gave 53% on Hydra — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 22:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendlil pleb
47% · 44 games44% · 71 game
Terrorbladeselfhate
Terrorblade
Beastmaster
BeastmasterInfernal
61% · 96 games52% · 63 games
Queen of PainEthereal
Queen of Pain
Invoker
Invokerdualrazee
55% · 63 games37% · 28 games
AxeActor
Axe
Dark Willow
Dark Willowxsvampire
52% · 95 games44% · 165 games
SnapfireLil
Snapfire
Omniknight
OmniknightMary_y
53% · 29 games
Game 2prediction missed28:10
Dragon Esports 48%Hydra 52%
The model gave 52% on Hydra — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 26:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusalil pleb
55% · 84 games44% · 216 games
Morphlingselfhate
Morphling
Pangolier
Pangolierdualrazee
47% · 359 games50% · 58 games
EarthshakerEthereal
Earthshaker
Enigma
EnigmaInfernal
54% · 112 games52% · 320 games
Centaur WarrunnerActor
Centaur Warrunner
Lion
Lionxsvampire
45% · 162 games51% · 211 games
PhoenixLil
Phoenix
Elder Titan
Elder TitanMary_y
55% · 88 games
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 58%
Series resultDragon Esports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2