?
arrow_backBack to match
CCT Series 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
DMSwin 2:1
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Passion UAloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

DMS

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
aik · 15 games
53%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
mellojul · 12 games
75%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Hduo · 10 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
prblms · 9 games
56%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Shigetsu · 9 games
44%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Shigetsu · 8 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Daxak · 8 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
aik · 8 games
50%

Passion UA

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 16 games
44%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Fernans · 15 games
33%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Batyuk · 14 games
57%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
flacko · 13 games
23%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Batyuk · 13 games
62%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
flacko · 13 games
31%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
niche · 11 games
45%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
flacko · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Pangolier
Pangolier
337 picks · 443 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
328 picks · 258 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
304 picks · 547 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
303 picks · 258 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
294 picks · 403 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
287 picks · 462 bans
46%
Jakiro
Jakiro
278 picks · 234 bans
43%
Windranger
Windranger
276 picks · 399 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 51%
Hero pool strength57% DMS
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total60% DMS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:29
DMS 56%Passion UA 44%
The model gave 56% on DMS — the game was taken by Passion UA in 35:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingrincyq
45% · 310 games51% · 351 game
Gyrocopteryowaai
Gyrocopter
Tiny
Tinymellojul
50% · 466 games49% · 326 games
Puckniche
Puck
Beastmaster
BeastmasterDaxak
45% · 224 games54% · 255 games
DoomBatyuk
Doom
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonHduo
52% · 360 games52% · 392 games
BatriderFernans
Batrider
Tusk
Tuskprblms
50% · 267 games52% · 303 games
Clockwerkflacko
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct48:33
DMS 54%Passion UA 46%
The model gave 54% on DMS — the game was taken by DMS in 1:21:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
Puckmellojul
47% · 292 games54% · 213 games
Lunayowaai
Luna
Bristleback
BristlebackDaxak
56% · 109 games61% · 81 game
Sand KingBatyuk
Sand King
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendrincyq
46% · 126 games54% · 157 games
Primal Beastniche
Primal Beast
Muerta
Muertaprblms
40% · 92 games48% · 197 games
Clockwerkflacko
Clockwerk
Tusk
TuskHduo
46% · 248 games48% · 219 games
BatriderFernans
Batrider
Game 3prediction correct34:6
DMS 56%Passion UA 44%
The model gave 56% on DMS — the game was taken by DMS in 30:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendrincyq
51% · 105 games48% · 124 games
Templar Assassinyowaai
Templar Assassin
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritmellojul
52% · 139 games51% · 108 games
BeastmasterBatyuk
Beastmaster
Slardar
SlardarDaxak
53% · 83 games58% · 82 games
Sand Kingniche
Sand King
Muerta
Muertaprblms
50% · 62 games46% · 204 games
BatriderFernans
Batrider
Tusk
TuskHduo
46% · 191 game42% · 62 games
Bristlebackflacko
Bristleback
Model check result
Model favoriteDMS · 60%
Series resultDMS 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3