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CCT Series 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Dragon Esportswin 2:0
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Quantum Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Dragon Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Norma · 18 games
44%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
lil pleb · 16 games
13%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
paw · 13 games
54%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Mary_y · 12 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Norma · 11 games
45%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
paw · 11 games
36%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Norma · 10 games
50%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Norma · 10 games
20%

Quantum Team

Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Fezor · 7 games
71%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Somnia · 6 games
67%
Magnus
Magnussignature
kolya_kaBAN68 · 6 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
bashka · 5 games
60%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
bashka · 4 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
kolya_kaBAN68 · 4 games
75%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Rvze · 4 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Somnia · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Pangolier
Pangolier
340 picks · 444 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
331 picks · 261 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
307 picks · 550 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
303 picks · 257 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
294 picks · 401 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
287 picks · 462 bans
46%
Jakiro
Jakiro
286 picks · 234 bans
43%
Sand King
Sand King
277 picks · 781 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 41%
Hero pool strength58% Quantum Team
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total66% Dragon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:17
Dragon Esports 59%Quantum Team 41%
The model gave 59% on Dragon Esports — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 34:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusalil pleb
54% · 67 games48% · 257 games
Morphlingbashka
Morphling
Pangolier
Pangolierdualrazee
47% · 246 games51% · 100 games
MagnusRvze
Magnus
Axe
AxeInfernal
51% · 25 games48% · 29 games
Dawnbreakerkolya_kaBAN68
Dawnbreaker
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonxsvampire
52% · 186 games47% · 165 games
SnapfireSomnia
Snapfire
Elder Titan
Elder TitanMary_y
51% · 65 games58% · 38 games
UndyingFezor
Undying
Game 2prediction correct41:11
Dragon Esports 56%Quantum Team 44%
The model gave 56% on Dragon Esports — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 30:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-Magelil pleb
49% · 43 games44% · 74 games
Medusabashka
Medusa
Puck
Puckdualrazee
49% · 169 games52% · 128 games
Templar AssassinRvze
Templar Assassin
Dark Seer
Dark SeerInfernal
52% · 99 games49% · 94 games
Magnuskolya_kaBAN68
Magnus
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinxsvampire
53% · 39 games46% · 152 games
SnapfireSomnia
Snapfire
Clockwerk
ClockwerkMary_y
53% · 191 game54% · 93 games
Elder TitanFezor
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteDragon Esports · 66%
Series resultDragon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2