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CCT Series 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Dragon Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Kiritych · 15 games
40%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Fng · 11 games
55%
Rubick
Rubick
Antares · 11 games
55%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Kiritych · 11 games
82%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
Noticed · 10 games
60%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Noticed · 9 games
44%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Fng · 9 games
78%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Antares · 8 games
50%

Dragon Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Norma · 17 games
47%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
lil pleb · 14 games
14%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
paw · 13 games
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Norma · 11 games
45%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Mary_y · 11 games
55%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
paw · 11 games
36%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Norma · 10 games
20%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
dualrazee · 9 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Pangolier
Pangolier
337 picks · 441 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
327 picks · 264 bans
51%
Enchantress
Enchantress
307 picks · 547 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
299 picks · 254 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
292 picks · 395 bans
54%
Jakiro
Jakiro
289 picks · 236 bans
44%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
287 picks · 463 bans
46%
Sand King
Sand King
277 picks · 780 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 41%
Hero pool strength57% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:29
Virtus.pro 65%Dragon Esports 35%
The model gave 65% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 1:02:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaKiritych
48% · 142 games49% · 230 games
Morphlinglil pleb
Morphling
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainSquad1x
48% · 85 games47% · 14 games
Outworld Destroyerdualrazee
Outworld Destroyer
Sand King
Sand KingNoticed
48% · 146 games48% · 252 games
DoomInfernal
Doom
Enchantress
EnchantressAntares
50% · 319 games53% · 295 games
Hoodwinkxsvampire
Hoodwink
Batrider
Batrideraik
55% · 299 games51% · 200 games
PhoenixMary_y
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct38:23
Virtus.pro 64%Dragon Esports 36%
The model gave 64% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 37:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingKiritych
55% · 142 games46% · 261 game
Morphlinglil pleb
Morphling
Puck
PuckSquad1x
50% · 270 games46% · 397 games
Pangolierdualrazee
Pangolier
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerNoticed
50% · 428 games52% · 290 games
MarsInfernal
Mars
Batrider
BatriderAntares
47% · 379 games54% · 49 games
Nyx Assassinxsvampire
Nyx Assassin
Lich
Lichaik
56% · 20 games49% · 242 games
TuskMary_y
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 76%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2