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European Pro League Season 20 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydraloss 0:2
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hydra

Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Actor · 5 games
40%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Actor · 4 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Ethereal · 4 games
75%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
selfhate · 4 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
ani-san · 4 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
ani-san · 3 games
67%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Ethereal · 3 games
0%
Snapfire
Snapfire
ani-san · 3 games
33%

Natus Vincere Junior

Lion
Lion
Riddys · 36 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 21 game
52%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 21 game
62%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 19 games
63%
Rubick
Rubick
Daze · 17 games
59%
Lifestealer
Lifestealersignature
gotthejuice · 16 games
63%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Daze · 13 games
54%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
pma · 12 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Pangolier
Pangolier
335 picks · 434 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
328 picks · 262 bans
51%
Enchantress
Enchantress
308 picks · 547 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
295 picks · 237 bans
44%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
293 picks · 250 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
286 picks · 462 bans
46%
Tusk
Tusk
285 picks · 389 bans
54%
Windranger
Windranger
277 picks · 401 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 45%
Hero pool strength55% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:35
Hydra 44%Natus Vincere Junior 56%
The model gave 56% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 27:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckEthereal
52% · 160 games44% · 150 games
Morphlinggotthejuice
Morphling
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangerselfhate
56% · 29 games48% · 107 games
Beastmasterpma
Beastmaster
Enigma
EnigmaActor
60% · 97 games49% · 49 games
Earth SpiritNiku
Earth Spirit
Dark Willow
Dark Willowani-san
52% · 157 games41% · 131 game
HoodwinkDaze
Hoodwink
57% · 6 games
LichRiddys
Lich
Game 2prediction correct24:29
Hydra 40%Natus Vincere Junior 60%
The model gave 60% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 37:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingselfhate
47% · 307 games52% · 159 games
Lunagotthejuice
Luna
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainEthereal
49% · 101 game52% · 130 games
Beastmasterpma
Beastmaster
Underlord
UnderlordActor
52% · 84 games46% · 140 games
TimbersawNiku
Timbersaw
Snapfire
Snapfireani-san
44% · 187 games52% · 189 games
Shadow DemonRiddys
Shadow Demon
58% · 61 game
Keeper of the LightDaze
Keeper of the Light
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 64%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2