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European Pro League Season 20 · BO3
result vs prediction
ASAKURAloss 1:2
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Level UPwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

ASAKURA

No games played over 6 months.

Level UP

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
SsaSpartan · 6 games
0%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
xsvampire · 6 games
33%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
Jeezy · 6 games
17%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
ififall · 5 games
0%
Rubick
Rubick
Jeezy · 5 games
0%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Jeezy · 5 games
20%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
ififall · 4 games
25%
Doom
Doomoften banned
ififall · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Pangolier
Pangolier
335 picks · 434 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
330 picks · 265 bans
52%
Enchantress
Enchantress
310 picks · 546 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
300 picks · 239 bans
44%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
293 picks · 249 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
286 picks · 464 bans
46%
Tusk
Tusk
284 picks · 386 bans
54%
Windranger
Windranger
277 picks · 401 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 31%
Hero pool strength60% ASAKURA
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total53% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:22
ASAKURA 49%Level UP 51%
The model gave 51% on Level UP — the game was taken by ASAKURA in 38:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
Bristleback4IVAN
47% · 101 game51% · 139 games
LunaFocus
Luna
Beastmaster
BeastmasterpJonn
45% · 145 games58% · 76 games
Sand KingWuiter
Sand King
Void Spirit
Void Spirityoung G
45% · 107 games54% · 194 games
PuckMaTson
Puck
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon333
50% · 263 games51% · 78 games
Keeper of the LightJeezy
Keeper of the Light
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunterariel
57% · 22 games50% · 151 game
TuskSsaSpartan
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed20:33
ASAKURA 51%Level UP 49%
The model gave 51% on ASAKURA — the game was taken by Level UP in 42:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight4IVAN
42% · 353 games48% · 62 games
EarthshakerMaTson
Earthshaker
Visage
VisagepJonn
40% · 75 games54% · 98 games
Shadow FiendFocus
Shadow Fiend
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirityoung G
56% · 199 games54% · 257 games
RubickJeezy
Rubick
Alchemist
Alchemist333
53% · 169 games51% · 364 games
Centaur WarrunnerWuiter
Centaur Warrunner
Tusk
Tuskariel
51% · 229 games51% · 244 games
ClockwerkSsaSpartan
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction missed15:45
ASAKURA 51%Level UP 49%
The model gave 51% on ASAKURA — the game was taken by Level UP in 34:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Luna4IVAN
48% · 254 games45% · 224 games
GyrocopterFocus
Gyrocopter
Puck
Puckyoung G
52% · 207 games51% · 74 games
EarthshakerMaTson
Earthshaker
Beastmaster
BeastmasterpJonn
43% · 157 games53% · 226 games
Primal BeastWuiter
Primal Beast
Mirana
Mirana333
46% · 159 games46% · 262 games
RubickJeezy
Rubick
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenariel
56% · 130 games58% · 121 game
DisruptorSsaSpartan
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 53%
Series resultLevel UP 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3