EPL Masters I · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPwin 2:0series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MOUZloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Level UP
Hoodwinksignature
queezy · 16 games
Techiessignature
Htrd · 14 games
Void Spiritsignature
Ainkrad · 13 games
Windranger
queezy · 13 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Ainkrad · 12 games
Witch Doctorsignature
Htrd · 11 games
Tidehuntersignature
Bb3px · 9 games
Dark Willow
queezy · 8 games
MOUZ
Tusk
yamich · 24 games
Dragon Knight
Crystallis · 20 games
Clockwerkoften banned
yamich · 19 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 19 games
Batrideroften banned
BOOM · 17 games
Warlock
Seleri · 17 games
Bristlebackoften banned
BOOM · 16 games
Enchantress
Seleri · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
496 picks · 361 bans
Clockwerk
361 picks · 646 bans
Bane
341 picks · 386 bans
Rubick
339 picks · 192 bans
Tiny
316 picks · 346 bans
Ember Spirit
312 picks · 450 bans
Windranger
306 picks · 231 bans
Storm Spirit
300 picks · 326 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 24%
Hero pool strength62% Level UP
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed47:15
Level UP 50%MOUZ 50%
The model gave 50% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Level UP in 42:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingWoE
LargoBOOM
Storm SpiritAinkrad
RazorCrystallis
TidehunterBb3px
Earth SpiritSupream^
Miranaqueezy
UndyingTobi
TechiesHtrd
BaneOneJey
Game 2prediction correct51:33
Level UP 51%MOUZ 49%
The model gave 51% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 53:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistWoE
InvokerSupream^
Ember SpiritAinkrad
Monkey KingCrystallis
DawnbreakerBb3px
UnderlordBOOM
Miranaqueezy
Dark WillowOneJey
UndyingHtrd
BaneTobi
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 55%
Series resultLevel UP 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2