?
arrow_backBack to match
CCT Series 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
DMSwin 2:1
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

DMS

Batrider
Batridersignature
aik · 13 games
62%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
prblms · 9 games
44%
Jakiro
Jakiro
aik · 8 games
50%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
mellojul · 8 games
75%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Shigetsu · 7 games
71%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
Daxak · 7 games
86%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
aik · 7 games
43%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Shigetsu · 7 games
57%

Nemiga Gaming

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
aik · 21 game
62%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Lukas · 17 games
65%
Rubick
Rubick
jesv · 17 games
35%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
queezy · 17 games
59%
Batrider
Batridersignature
jesv · 15 games
60%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
nicky`cool · 13 games
31%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
MikSa` · 12 games
50%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
MikSa` · 12 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Pangolier
Pangolier
335 picks · 433 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
328 picks · 264 bans
52%
Enchantress
Enchantress
310 picks · 546 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
301 picks · 239 bans
45%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
291 picks · 249 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
287 picks · 464 bans
46%
Tusk
Tusk
283 picks · 384 bans
54%
Windranger
Windranger
277 picks · 401 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 33%
Hero pool strength54% DMS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% DMS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:30
DMS 55%Nemiga Gaming 45%
The model gave 55% on DMS — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 49:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetDaxak
53% · 114 games42% · 81 game
Earth Spiritряф^^
Earth Spirit
Alchemist
Alchemistrincyq
51% · 92 games50% · 206 games
TimbersawMiyaoo
Timbersaw
Void Spirit
Void Spiritmellojul
41% · 61 game53% · 106 games
Naga Sirenantoha
Naga Siren
Clockwerk
ClockwerkHduo
50% · 174 games55% · 221 game
Shadow DemonShishak
Shadow Demon
Dark Willow
Dark Willowprblms
51% · 173 games
Game 2prediction correct32:11
DMS 58%Nemiga Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on DMS — the game was taken by DMS in 33:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetDaxak
46% · 69 games52% · 26 games
Dazzleряф^^
Dazzle
Morphling
Morphlingrincyq
45% · 119 games55% · 179 games
DoomMiyaoo
Doom
Sand King
Sand Kingmellojul
55% · 83 games52% · 34 games
Dawnbreakerantoha
Dawnbreaker
Tusk
TuskHduo
44% · 101 game50% · 260 games
RubickShishak
Rubick
Snapfire
Snapfireprblms
49% · 127 games
Game 3prediction correct35:15
DMS 58%Nemiga Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on DMS — the game was taken by DMS in 33:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingrincyq
55% · 127 games50% · 135 games
Nature's ProphetMiyaoo
Nature's Prophet
Sand King
Sand KingDaxak
49% · 64 games44% · 157 games
Invokerряф^^
Invoker
Tiny
Tinymellojul
48% · 172 games44% · 243 games
SnapfireShishak
Snapfire
Clockwerk
ClockwerkHduo
58% · 114 games56% · 36 games
Dazzleantoha
Dazzle
Mirana
Miranaprblms
55% · 94 games
Model check result
Model favoriteDMS · 62%
Series resultDMS 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3