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CCT Series 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Passion UAloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Kiritych · 13 games
31%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Fng · 11 games
55%
Rubick
Rubick
Antares · 11 games
55%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Kiritych · 11 games
82%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
Noticed · 10 games
60%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Noticed · 9 games
44%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Fng · 9 games
78%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 8 games
63%

Passion UA

Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
Fernans · 16 games
44%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Batyuk · 14 games
57%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
flacko · 13 games
23%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Batyuk · 11 games
55%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Fernans · 10 games
20%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
niche · 10 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Batyuk · 9 games
22%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
yowaai · 9 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Pangolier
Pangolier
336 picks · 432 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
333 picks · 262 bans
52%
Enchantress
Enchantress
311 picks · 548 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
301 picks · 243 bans
45%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
292 picks · 247 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
284 picks · 464 bans
46%
Windranger
Windranger
280 picks · 401 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
279 picks · 383 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:20
Virtus.pro 64%Passion UA 36%
The model gave 64% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 35:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightKiritych
48% · 265 games55% · 87 games
Shadow Fiendyowaai
Shadow Fiend
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainSquad1x
53% · 81 game54% · 104 games
Sand Kingniche
Sand King
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNoticed
47% · 162 games51% · 163 games
RazorBatyuk
Razor
Enchantress
EnchantressAntares
49% · 234 games50% · 232 games
BatriderFernans
Batrider
Lich
Lichaik
51% · 19 games45% · 175 games
Tuskflacko
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct35:10
Virtus.pro 63%Passion UA 37%
The model gave 63% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 27:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSquad1x
56% · 164 games51% · 293 games
Lunayowaai
Luna
Bristleback
BristlebackNoticed
52% · 71 game46% · 233 games
Ember Spiritniche
Ember Spirit
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightKiritych
49% · 266 games49% · 299 games
Primal BeastBatyuk
Primal Beast
Batrider
BatriderAntares
48% · 271 game43% · 114 games
PugnaFernans
Pugna
Enchantress
Enchantressaik
48% · 244 games58% · 77 games
Omniknightflacko
Omniknight
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 75%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2