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European Pro League Season 20 · BO3
result vs prediction
DMSwin 2:1
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Passion UAloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

DMS

Batrider
Batridersignature
aik · 11 games
64%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
prblms · 9 games
44%
Jakiro
Jakiro
aik · 8 games
50%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
mellojul · 8 games
75%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Shigetsu · 7 games
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Hduo · 6 games
50%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
Daxak · 6 games
83%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
aik · 6 games
33%

Passion UA

Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
Fernans · 14 games
43%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
flacko · 13 games
23%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Batyuk · 12 games
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
niche · 10 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Fernans · 9 games
22%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Batyuk · 9 games
22%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
yowaai · 9 games
44%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Batyuk · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Pangolier
Pangolier
333 picks · 429 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
332 picks · 259 bans
52%
Enchantress
Enchantress
310 picks · 547 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
301 picks · 243 bans
45%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
291 picks · 243 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
284 picks · 464 bans
46%
Windranger
Windranger
280 picks · 401 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
277 picks · 785 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 51%
Hero pool strength57% DMS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% DMS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:37
DMS 57%Passion UA 43%
The model gave 57% on DMS — the game was taken by Passion UA in 32:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemistrincyq
59% · 146 games60% · 27 games
Clinkzyowaai
Clinkz
Beastmaster
BeastmasterDaxak
48% · 186 games47% · 144 games
TimbersawBatyuk
Timbersaw
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painmellojul
52% · 109 games48% · 270 games
Pangolierniche
Pangolier
Batrider
Batriderprblms
48% · 336 games44% · 150 games
Tuskflacko
Tusk
Lich
LichHduo
55% · 24 games49% · 210 games
HoodwinkFernans
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct41:37
DMS 55%Passion UA 45%
The model gave 55% on DMS — the game was taken by DMS in 58:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painmellojul
50% · 96 games50% · 184 games
Timbersawniche
Timbersaw
Broodmother
Broodmotherrincyq
53% · 97 games54% · 145 games
Weaveryowaai
Weaver
Batrider
BatriderDaxak
51% · 337 games47% · 202 games
DoomBatyuk
Doom
Alchemist
Alchemistprblms
56% · 136 games50% · 289 games
HoodwinkFernans
Hoodwink
Enchantress
EnchantressHduo
48% · 340 games42% · 186 games
Tuskflacko
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct29:13
DMS 58%Passion UA 42%
The model gave 58% on DMS — the game was taken by DMS in 33:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Huskar
Huskarmellojul
58% · 39 games54% · 98 games
Nature's Prophetyowaai
Nature's Prophet
Weaver
Weaverrincyq
55% · 193 games46% · 26 games
Viperniche
Viper
Dazzle
DazzleDaxak
44% · 41 game44% · 207 games
PangolierBatyuk
Pangolier
Omniknight
OmniknightHduo
55% · 55 games49% · 156 games
BatriderFernans
Batrider
Tusk
Tuskprblms
46% · 240 games49% · 81 game
Pugnaflacko
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteDMS · 61%
Series resultDMS 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3