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CCT Series 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAloss 1:2
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Passion UA

Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
Fernans · 13 games
38%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
flacko · 12 games
25%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Batyuk · 12 games
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
niche · 10 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Fernans · 9 games
22%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Batyuk · 9 games
22%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
yowaai · 9 games
44%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Batyuk · 9 games
56%

Nemiga Gaming

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
aik · 21 game
62%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Lukas · 17 games
65%
Rubick
Rubick
jesv · 17 games
35%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
queezy · 17 games
59%
Batrider
Batridersignature
jesv · 15 games
60%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
nicky`cool · 13 games
31%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
MikSa` · 12 games
50%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
MikSa` · 12 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
335 picks · 261 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
334 picks · 432 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
311 picks · 547 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
303 picks · 245 bans
44%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
291 picks · 241 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
285 picks · 466 bans
46%
Windranger
Windranger
282 picks · 401 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
281 picks · 788 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 27%
Hero pool strength54% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Passion UA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:35
Passion UA 50%Nemiga Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 36:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
Broodmotheryowaai
54% · 37 games42% · 191 game
Puckряф^^
Puck
Enigma
EnigmaBatyuk
62% · 91 game40% · 94 games
SlardarMiyaoo
Slardar
Monkey King
Monkey Kingniche
61% · 90 games48% · 159 games
SnapfireShishak
Snapfire
Enchantress
Enchantressflacko
44% · 164 games53% · 113 games
Naga Sirenantoha
Naga Siren
Tusk
TuskFernans
51% · 175 games
Game 2prediction correct42:18
Passion UA 51%Nemiga Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 32:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendyowaai
45% · 45 games63% · 192 games
Storm Spiritряф^^
Storm Spirit
Tiny
Tinyniche
45% · 202 games47% · 183 games
BeastmasterMiyaoo
Beastmaster
Doom
DoomBatyuk
44% · 107 games50% · 121 game
PugnaShishak
Pugna
Hoodwink
HoodwinkFernans
50% · 157 games56% · 142 games
Disruptorantoha
Disruptor
Tusk
Tuskflacko
45% · 127 games
Game 3prediction correct12:50
Passion UA 49%Nemiga Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 27:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
Razoryowaai
41% · 68 games48% · 69 games
Earth Spiritряф^^
Earth Spirit
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritniche
62% · 91 game46% · 27 games
Night StalkerMiyaoo
Night Stalker
Visage
VisageBatyuk
47% · 36 games48% · 166 games
SnapfireShishak
Snapfire
Tusk
TuskFernans
47% · 103 games59% · 91 game
Elder Titanantoha
Elder Titan
Marci
Marciflacko
43% · 55 games
Model check result
Model favoritePassion UA · 53%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3