CCT Series 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Palianytsiawin 2:0series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Level UPloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Palianytsia
Snapfiresignature
QBFY · 12 games
Lunasignature
Crystallize · 11 games
Leshracsignature
QBFY · 9 games
Primal Beastsignature
Moonlight · 9 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
fortniteMan · 7 games
Alchemistoften banned
kreker · 6 games
Dark Willowsignature
QBFY · 6 games
Tusksignature
kreker · 6 games
Level UP
Clockwerk
SsaSpartan · 6 games
Hoodwinkoften banned
Jeezy · 6 games
Dark Willow
xsvampire · 5 games
Pangolieroften banned
ififall · 5 games
Rubick
Jeezy · 5 games
Tinyoften banned
Jeezy · 5 games
Brewmasteroften banned
ififall · 4 games
Doomoften banned
ififall · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
338 picks · 267 bans
Pangolier
335 picks · 436 bans
Enchantress
313 picks · 548 bans
Jakiro
306 picks · 247 bans
Clockwerk
293 picks · 245 bans
Dragon Knight
286 picks · 466 bans
Sand King
285 picks · 791 bans
Windranger
284 picks · 402 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 33%
Hero pool strength69% Palianytsia
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Palianytsia
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Palianytsia 74%Level UP 26%
The model gave 74% on Palianytsia — the game was taken by Palianytsia.
Game 2prediction correct38:24
Palianytsia 63%Level UP 37%
The model gave 63% on Palianytsia — the game was taken by Palianytsia in 42:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaCrystallize
MorphlingFocus
Storm SpiritMoonlight
MarsStoneBank
Night StalkerfortniteMan
HuskarMaTson
Marcikreker
Dark WillowJeezy
Shadow DemonQBFY
TuskSsaSpartan
Model check result
Model favoritePalianytsia · 74%
Series resultPalianytsia 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2