PGL Wallachia 2024 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicwin 2:1series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Tundra Esportsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Heroic
Clockwerk
Scofield · 26 games
Hoodwinksignature
Scofield · 21 game
Snapfire
Scofield · 19 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
KJ · 14 games
Shadow Demonsignature
KJ · 14 games
Tusksignature
Scofield · 14 games
Alchemistsignature
K1 · 13 games
Pangolieroften banned
Davai · 13 games
Tundra Esports
Marssignature
RAMZES666 · 24 games
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 22 games
Rubick
9Class · 21 game
Sand Kingsignature
Topson · 21 game
Morphlingoften banned
Pure~ · 18 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 18 games
Lunaoften banned
Pure~ · 17 games
Tuskoften banned
Whitemon · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
336 picks · 272 bans
Pangolier
332 picks · 433 bans
Enchantress
313 picks · 547 bans
Jakiro
309 picks · 248 bans
Clockwerk
287 picks · 244 bans
Dragon Knight
286 picks · 467 bans
Windranger
285 picks · 403 bans
Sand King
284 picks · 792 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 56%
Hero pool strength53% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total68% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:25
Heroic 40%Tundra Esports 60%
The model gave 60% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Heroic in 1:00:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingParker
MedusaShad
Storm Spirit4nalog
Sand King33
PangolierDavai
InvokerMidOne
HoodwinkScofield
Bounty HunterSaksa
ClockwerkKJ
SnapfireWhitemon
Game 2prediction correct22:40
Heroic 40%Tundra Esports 60%
The model gave 60% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 50:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinParker
GyrocopterShad
BristlebackDavai
Ember SpiritMidOne
Pangolier4nalog
Sand King33
Shadow DemonKJ
EnchantressSaksa
HoodwinkScofield
TuskWhitemon
Game 3prediction missed30:25
Heroic 40%Tundra Esports 60%
The model gave 60% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Heroic in 43:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinParker
Shadow FiendShad
Sand KingDavai
BroodmotherMidOne
Earth Spirit4nalog
Bristleback33
TuskKJ
Shadow DemonSaksa
HoodwinkScofield
ClockwerkWhitemon
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 68%
Series resultHeroic 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3