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CCT Series 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
DMSwin 2:1
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Matreshka Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

DMS

Batrider
Batridersignature
aik · 11 games
64%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Shigetsu · 9 games
44%
Jakiro
Jakiro
aik · 8 games
50%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
mellojul · 8 games
75%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Shigetsu · 7 games
57%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
aik · 6 games
33%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
prblms · 6 games
67%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
prblms · 6 games
50%

Matreshka Team

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Chuvash · 1 game
100%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
SoNNeikO · 1 game
100%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
WoE · 1 game
100%
Zeus
Zeusoften banned
Ethereal · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
338 picks · 275 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
334 picks · 432 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
314 picks · 543 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
313 picks · 248 bans
44%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
287 picks · 241 bans
53%
Windranger
Windranger
287 picks · 404 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
286 picks · 465 bans
46%
Sand King
Sand King
284 picks · 792 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 40%
Hero pool strength52% Matreshka Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% DMS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:24
DMS 68%Matreshka Team 32%
The model gave 68% on DMS — the game was taken by Matreshka Team in 41:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusarincyq
38% · 17 games60% · 68 games
Bristlebackdizzying
Bristleback
Timbersaw
Timbersawmellojul
55% · 60 games48% · 19 games
Outworld DestroyerEgor
Outworld Destroyer
Beastmaster
BeastmasterDaxak
43% · 39 games46% · 62 games
Visagekur0patbI4
Visage
Sniper
Sniperprblms
49% · 38 games43% · 75 games
Earth SpiritGroom
Earth Spirit
Clockwerk
ClockwerkHduo
56% · 70 games
Game 2prediction correct36:5
DMS 69%Matreshka Team 31%
The model gave 69% on DMS — the game was taken by DMS in 26:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusarincyq
43% · 74 games54% · 125 games
Lifestealerdizzying
Lifestealer
Dazzle
DazzleDaxak
53% · 25 games47% · 308 games
PangolierEgor
Pangolier
Tiny
Tinymellojul
45% · 219 games49% · 66 games
Visagekur0patbI4
Visage
Snapfire
Snapfireprblms
50% · 121 game53% · 112 games
MarciGroom
Marci
Clockwerk
ClockwerkHduo
58% · 172 games
Game 3prediction correct40:20
DMS 68%Matreshka Team 32%
The model gave 68% on DMS — the game was taken by DMS in 57:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
Puckmellojul
52% · 202 games41% · 22 games
Drow Rangerdizzying
Drow Ranger
Sven
Svenrincyq
43% · 149 games50% · 188 games
Templar AssassinEgor
Templar Assassin
Beastmaster
BeastmasterDaxak
48% · 127 games48% · 415 games
Pangolierkur0patbI4
Pangolier
Clockwerk
ClockwerkHduo
57% · 188 games51% · 235 games
Dark WillowGroom
Dark Willow
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonprblms
54% · 194 games
Model check result
Model favoriteDMS · 81%
Series resultDMS 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3