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PGL Wallachia 2024 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincereloss 1:2
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Zayac · 22 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
pma · 16 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 16 games
56%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
Nefrit · 16 games
75%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Nefrit · 15 games
60%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Yuragi · 15 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Sancity · 13 games
69%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Zayac · 13 games
38%

Tundra Esports

Mars
Marssignature
RAMZES666 · 24 games
75%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 22 games
64%
Rubick
Rubick
9Class · 21 game
52%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Topson · 19 games
63%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pure~ · 18 games
50%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Pure~ · 16 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Whitemon · 15 games
73%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
9Class · 15 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
338 picks · 275 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
334 picks · 432 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
314 picks · 543 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
313 picks · 248 bans
44%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
287 picks · 241 bans
53%
Windranger
Windranger
287 picks · 404 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
286 picks · 465 bans
46%
Sand King
Sand King
284 picks · 792 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 55%
Hero pool strength54% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total71% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:30
Natus Vincere 39%Tundra Esports 61%
The model gave 61% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 28:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorYuragi
44% · 125 games52% · 315 games
LunaShad
Luna
Puck
Puckbzm
46% · 250 games58% · 44 games
BroodmotherMidOne
Broodmother
Timbersaw
TimbersawBOOM
51% · 223 games44% · 89 games
Sand King33
Sand King
Naga Siren
Naga SirenPuppey
58% · 147 games55% · 257 games
Shadow DemonSaksa
Shadow Demon
Dark Willow
Dark WillowZayac
50% · 213 games46% · 253 games
TuskWhitemon
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed49:36
Natus Vincere 38%Tundra Esports 62%
The model gave 62% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 38:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistYuragi
53% · 117 games51% · 96 games
Beastmaster33
Beastmaster
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritbzm
53% · 156 games40% · 78 games
RazorShad
Razor
Underlord
UnderlordBOOM
53% · 99 games53% · 75 games
Monkey KingMidOne
Monkey King
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinZayac
55% · 51 game51% · 166 games
Shadow DemonSaksa
Shadow Demon
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightPuppey
54% · 115 games37% · 123 games
TuskWhitemon
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct9:29
Natus Vincere 36%Tundra Esports 64%
The model gave 64% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 28:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistYuragi
51% · 99 games49% · 63 games
MedusaShad
Medusa
Beastmaster
BeastmasterBOOM
47% · 119 games51% · 88 games
Sand King33
Sand King
Earthshaker
Earthshakerbzm
43% · 53 games52% · 16 games
Bounty HunterMidOne
Bounty Hunter
Dark Willow
Dark WillowZayac
52% · 182 games50% · 182 games
TuskWhitemon
Tusk
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightPuppey
51% · 86 games53% · 190 games
Shadow DemonSaksa
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 71%
Series resultTundra Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3