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PGL Wallachia 2024 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicloss 1:2
series probability
13%87%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Falconswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Scofield · 26 games
58%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Scofield · 21 game
62%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Scofield · 18 games
61%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
KJ · 14 games
71%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
K1 · 13 games
77%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
KJ · 13 games
54%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
K1 · 12 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Davai · 12 games
42%

Team Falcons

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 49 games
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Malr1ne · 32 games
66%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 28 games
75%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 27 games
63%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Skiter · 24 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 24 games
58%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Skiter · 23 games
78%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 22 games
77%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
338 picks · 278 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
335 picks · 430 bans
49%
Jakiro
Jakiro
317 picks · 249 bans
45%
Enchantress
Enchantress
316 picks · 544 bans
51%
Windranger
Windranger
288 picks · 404 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
287 picks · 468 bans
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
286 picks · 239 bans
53%
Sand King
Sand King
284 picks · 797 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 68%
Hero pool strength55% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total87% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:46
Heroic 27%Team Falcons 73%
The model gave 73% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 44:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterParker
44% · 168 games53% · 117 games
Nature's ProphetSkiter
Nature's Prophet
Monkey King
Monkey King4nalog
59% · 113 games61% · 76 games
Sand KingMalr1ne
Sand King
Mars
MarsDavai
47% · 216 games51% · 181 game
DoomATF
Doom
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorKJ
52% · 32 games47% · 260 games
HoodwinkCr1t-
Hoodwink
Tusk
TuskScofield
43% · 174 games48% · 69 games
OmniknightSneyking
Omniknight
Game 2prediction missed25:26
Heroic 28%Team Falcons 72%
The model gave 72% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Heroic in 47:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingParker
61% · 169 games39% · 107 games
RazorATF
Razor
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit4nalog
48% · 106 games50% · 160 games
Dragon KnightSkiter
Dragon Knight
Magnus
MagnusDavai
55% · 164 games47% · 267 games
PangolierMalr1ne
Pangolier
Naga Siren
Naga SirenKJ
54% · 186 games43% · 162 games
HoodwinkCr1t-
Hoodwink
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeScofield
54% · 244 games46% · 173 games
TuskSneyking
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct21:35
Heroic 27%Team Falcons 73%
The model gave 73% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 59:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain4nalog
46% · 66 games52% · 116 games
LinaMalr1ne
Lina
Muerta
MuertaParker
50% · 90 games49% · 89 games
BristlebackATF
Bristleback
Pangolier
PangolierDavai
49% · 286 games48% · 129 games
RazorSkiter
Razor
Snapfire
SnapfireScofield
48% · 195 games53% · 243 games
HoodwinkCr1t-
Hoodwink
Tusk
TuskKJ
50% · 170 games56% · 230 games
ClockwerkSneyking
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 87%
Series resultTeam Falcons 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3