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CCT Series 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
One Moveloss 0:2
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Dragon Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 19 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
SSS · 19 games
42%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
WoE · 18 games
56%
Doom
Doomsignature
SSS · 14 games
64%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Rein · 14 games
29%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SSS · 13 games
38%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
not me · 13 games
85%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
WoE · 13 games
54%

Dragon Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Norma · 14 games
36%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
paw · 13 games
8%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
paw · 11 games
36%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
paw · 10 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
dualrazee · 9 games
44%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
dualrazee · 9 games
33%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Norma · 9 games
22%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Norma · 8 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
340 picks · 282 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
336 picks · 431 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
321 picks · 544 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
318 picks · 249 bans
44%
Windranger
Windranger
288 picks · 407 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
287 picks · 470 bans
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
286 picks · 238 bans
53%
Sand King
Sand King
286 picks · 798 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 36%
Hero pool strength60% One Move
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total68% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:38
One Move 61%Dragon Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on One Move — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 35:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendWoE
58% · 109 games47% · 96 games
Medusalil pleb
Medusa
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerSSS
51% · 435 games47% · 383 games
Pangolierdualrazee
Pangolier
Timbersaw
TimbersawDifference
52% · 245 games50% · 262 games
MarsInfernal
Mars
Snapfire
Snapfirenot me
52% · 279 games46% · 262 games
Dark Willowxsvampire
Dark Willow
Tusk
TuskRein
53% · 286 games45% · 351 game
PhoenixMary_y
Phoenix
Game 2prediction missed23:31
One Move 60%Dragon Esports 40%
The model gave 60% on One Move — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 34:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingWoE
47% · 255 games43% · 152 games
Medusalil pleb
Medusa
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritDifference
53% · 195 games49% · 319 games
Dragon Knightdualrazee
Dragon Knight
Doom
DoomSSS
47% · 268 games51% · 436 games
Centaur WarrunnerInfernal
Centaur Warrunner
Batrider
BatriderRein
46% · 300 games52% · 295 games
Phoenixxsvampire
Phoenix
Tusk
Tusknot me
54% · 230 games65% · 46 games
OracleMary_y
Oracle
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 68%
Series resultDragon Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2