PGL Wallachia 2024 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:1series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:1
beastcoastloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Marssignature
RAMZES666 · 24 games
Rubick
9Class · 22 games
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 21 game
Sand Kingsignature
Topson · 19 games
Morphlingoften banned
Pure~ · 18 games
Lunaoften banned
Pure~ · 17 games
Enchantresssignature
Whitemon · 15 games
Snipersignature
Topson · 15 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
339 picks · 282 bans
Pangolier
336 picks · 430 bans
Enchantress
320 picks · 542 bans
Jakiro
318 picks · 249 bans
Windranger
288 picks · 407 bans
Dragon Knight
287 picks · 470 bans
Sand King
286 picks · 798 bans
Clockwerk
284 picks · 237 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 36%
Hero pool strength57% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total81% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:27
Tundra Esports 81%beastcoast 19%
The model gave 81% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by beastcoast in 31:18.
Game 2prediction correct23:38
Tundra Esports 81%beastcoast 19%
The model gave 81% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 41:31.
Game 3prediction correct31:17
Tundra Esports 81%beastcoast 19%
The model gave 81% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 36:18.
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 81%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3