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CCT Series 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Bushidoloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
aik · 21 game
62%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Lukas · 17 games
65%
Rubick
Rubick
jesv · 17 games
35%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
queezy · 17 games
59%
Batrider
Batridersignature
jesv · 15 games
60%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
nicky`cool · 13 games
31%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
MikSa` · 12 games
50%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Lowskill · 11 games
45%

Bushido

Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Covisnine · 5 games
40%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Dodren · 4 games
50%
Mirana
Mirana
jAMES · 4 games
75%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Covisnine · 2 games
0%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jAMES · 2 games
0%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
4IVAN · 2 games
100%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
jAMES · 2 games
50%
Lina
Linaoften banned
rostislav_999 · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
337 picks · 282 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
336 picks · 427 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
319 picks · 541 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
318 picks · 249 bans
44%
Windranger
Windranger
288 picks · 407 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
287 picks · 468 bans
46%
Sand King
Sand King
286 picks · 798 bans
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
282 picks · 237 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)21% vs 38%
Hero pool strength51% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:23
Nemiga Gaming 59%Bushido 41%
The model gave 59% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 35:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightряф^^
55% · 52 games53% · 153 games
Ember SpiritDodren
Ember Spirit
Slardar
SlardarMiyaoo
50% · 55 games33% · 5 games
Drow RangerOtaker
Drow Ranger
Snapfire
SnapfireShishak
48% · 110 games45% · 90 games
MarciMax
Marci
Clockwerk
Clockwerkantoha
50% · 124 games51% · 93 games
LionjAMES
Lion
Game 2prediction missed22:46
Nemiga Gaming 58%Bushido 42%
The model gave 58% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Bushido in 43:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Earthshaker
Earthshakerряф^^
53% · 44 games55% · 12 games
DawnbreakerOtaker
Dawnbreaker
Underlord
UnderlordMiyaoo
36% · 33 games57% · 114 games
PuckDodren
Puck
Snapfire
SnapfireShishak
46% · 71 game56% · 10 games
Bounty HunterjAMES
Bounty Hunter
Clockwerk
Clockwerkantoha
49% · 110 games50% · 122 games
Crystal MaidenMax
Crystal Maiden
Game 3prediction correct0:0
Nemiga Gaming 58%Bushido 42%
The model gave 58% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 16144:38:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painряф^^
49% · 96 games57% · 213 games
LunaOtaker
Luna
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerMiyaoo
49% · 437 games47% · 326 games
TinyDodren
Tiny
Hoodwink
HoodwinkShishak
46% · 388 games50% · 301 game
BatriderjAMES
Batrider
Disruptor
Disruptorantoha
55% · 166 games47% · 247 games
EnchantressMax
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 66%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3