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PGL Wallachia 2024 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:0
series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
nounsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 48 games
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Malr1ne · 32 games
66%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 28 games
75%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 27 games
63%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Skiter · 24 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 24 games
58%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Skiter · 23 games
78%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 22 games
77%

nouns

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Fly · 23 games
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Lelis · 23 games
65%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Lelis · 22 games
68%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Copy · 21 game
71%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Gunnar · 20 games
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Lelis · 19 games
63%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Yuma · 19 games
47%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Fly · 18 games
61%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
340 picks · 286 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
337 picks · 429 bans
49%
Jakiro
Jakiro
321 picks · 250 bans
45%
Enchantress
Enchantress
319 picks · 539 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
289 picks · 469 bans
46%
Sand King
Sand King
289 picks · 798 bans
56%
Windranger
Windranger
289 picks · 408 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
284 picks · 271 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 59%
Hero pool strength54% Team Falcons
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total83% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:8
Team Falcons 69%nouns 31%
The model gave 69% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 27:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackATF
57% · 89 games52% · 187 games
LunaYuma
Luna
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendSkiter
46% · 89 games56% · 13 games
HuskarCopy
Huskar
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritMalr1ne
46% · 85 games42% · 58 games
VisageGunnar
Visage
Naga Siren
Naga SirenSneyking
54% · 131 game49% · 160 games
TuskLelis
Tusk
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCr1t-
52% · 196 games49% · 172 games
ClockwerkFly
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct42:26
Team Falcons 70%nouns 30%
The model gave 70% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 1:05:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackATF
59% · 61 game43% · 56 games
MedusaYuma
Medusa
Razor
RazorSkiter
40% · 123 games53% · 127 games
InvokerCopy
Invoker
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetMalr1ne
47% · 111 games49% · 180 games
DoomGunnar
Doom
Tusk
TuskSneyking
50% · 178 games53% · 142 games
SnapfireLelis
Snapfire
Batrider
BatriderCr1t-
53% · 211 games50% · 179 games
ClockwerkFly
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 83%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2