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PGL Wallachia 2024 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Heroicwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Mars
Marssignature
RAMZES666 · 24 games
75%
Rubick
Rubick
9Class · 22 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 21 game
62%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Topson · 19 games
63%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pure~ · 18 games
50%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Pure~ · 16 games
50%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Topson · 15 games
67%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Whitemon · 14 games
64%

Heroic

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Scofield · 26 games
58%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Scofield · 21 game
62%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Scofield · 17 games
65%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
KJ · 13 games
54%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
K1 · 12 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
KJ · 12 games
67%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Scofield · 12 games
75%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
K1 · 11 games
82%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
341 picks · 290 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
335 picks · 435 bans
49%
Jakiro
Jakiro
324 picks · 251 bans
45%
Enchantress
Enchantress
318 picks · 540 bans
51%
Sand King
Sand King
291 picks · 798 bans
57%
Windranger
Windranger
291 picks · 408 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
290 picks · 272 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
289 picks · 470 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 44%
Hero pool strength51% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total70% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:24
Tundra Esports 63%Heroic 37%
The model gave 63% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 42:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenShad
44% · 235 games48% · 365 games
Pangolier4nalog
Pangolier
Beastmaster
Beastmaster33
44% · 174 games48% · 143 games
AlchemistParker
Alchemist
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMidOne
64% · 195 games52% · 137 games
EnigmaDavai
Enigma
Mirana
MiranaSaksa
56% · 173 games44% · 201 game
SnapfireScofield
Snapfire
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonWhitemon
53% · 296 games47% · 227 games
EnchantressKJ
Enchantress
Game 2prediction missed17:27
Tundra Esports 62%Heroic 38%
The model gave 62% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Heroic in 35:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistShad
54% · 111 games49% · 189 games
MorphlingParker
Morphling
Broodmother
Broodmother33
43% · 60 games42% · 148 games
TimbersawDavai
Timbersaw
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMidOne
50% · 175 games55% · 86 games
Invoker4nalog
Invoker
Enchantress
EnchantressWhitemon
50% · 284 games47% · 85 games
Nyx AssassinScofield
Nyx Assassin
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightSaksa
57% · 99 games52% · 221 game
Shadow DemonKJ
Shadow Demon
Game 3prediction missed17:26
Tundra Esports 62%Heroic 38%
The model gave 62% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Heroic in 33:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaShad
47% · 202 games49% · 121 game
MedusaParker
Medusa
Puck
PuckMidOne
48% · 199 games48% · 190 games
Alchemist4nalog
Alchemist
Pangolier
Pangolier33
43% · 316 games50% · 321 game
Primal BeastDavai
Primal Beast
Snapfire
SnapfireSaksa
47% · 142 games55% · 32 games
Bounty HunterScofield
Bounty Hunter
Naga Siren
Naga SirenWhitemon
63% · 111 games54% · 306 games
Shadow DemonKJ
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 70%
Series resultHeroic 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3