PGL Wallachia 2024 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:1series probability
94%6%
probability at match start · final 2:1
beastcoastloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Falcons
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 47 games
Timbersawsignature
Malr1ne · 31 game
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 28 games
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 26 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Skiter · 24 games
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 23 games
Weaversignature
Skiter · 23 games
Doomsignature
ATF · 21 game
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
349 picks · 297 bans
Pangolier
335 picks · 438 bans
Jakiro
329 picks · 253 bans
Enchantress
319 picks · 541 bans
Rubick
298 picks · 283 bans
Windranger
295 picks · 412 bans
Sand King
294 picks · 797 bans
Dragon Knight
293 picks · 472 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 36%
Hero pool strength60% Team Falcons
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total94% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:21
Team Falcons 94%beastcoast 6%
The model gave 94% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 50:24.
Game 2prediction missed23:53
Team Falcons 94%beastcoast 6%
The model gave 94% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by beastcoast in 52:26.
Game 3prediction correct35:15
Team Falcons 94%beastcoast 6%
The model gave 94% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 51:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 94%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3