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PGL Wallachia 2024 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Azure Rayloss 0:2
series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Azure Ray

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Fantasy · 20 games
55%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Faith_bian · 14 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
fy · 14 games
43%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Fantasy · 13 games
23%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
lou · 12 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Ori · 12 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ori · 12 games
58%
Snapfire
Snapfire
fy · 12 games
42%

Tundra Esports

Mars
Marssignature
RAMZES666 · 24 games
75%
Rubick
Rubick
9Class · 24 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 21 game
62%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pure~ · 19 games
53%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Topson · 19 games
63%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Topson · 16 games
69%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Whitemon · 15 games
67%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Pure~ · 15 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
345 picks · 295 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
331 picks · 253 bans
45%
Pangolier
Pangolier
329 picks · 434 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
315 picks · 535 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
299 picks · 288 bans
51%
Windranger
Windranger
296 picks · 421 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
294 picks · 796 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
293 picks · 474 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 55%
Hero pool strength58% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:30
Azure Ray 37%Tundra Esports 63%
The model gave 63% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 42:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterlou
47% · 243 games50% · 206 games
LunaShad
Luna
Dark Seer
Dark Seerniu
53% · 164 games54% · 167 games
PuckMidOne
Puck
Clockwerk
ClockwerkpLAnet
52% · 213 games48% · 330 games
Pangolier33
Pangolier
Phoenix
PhoenixFantasy
46% · 248 games48% · 56 games
Death ProphetSaksa
Death Prophet
53% · 109 games
Naga SirenWhitemon
Naga Siren
Game 2prediction correct6:18
Azure Ray 37%Tundra Esports 63%
The model gave 63% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 19:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightlou
42% · 284 games55% · 136 games
AlchemistShad
Alchemist
Beastmaster
Beastmasterniu
48% · 127 games61% · 37 games
Visage33
Visage
Phoenix
PhoenixFantasy
42% · 232 games55% · 345 games
TinyMidOne
Tiny
Lion
LionpLAnet
42% · 169 games61% · 79 games
ChenWhitemon
Chen
53% · 215 games
ClockwerkSaksa
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 73%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2