PGL Wallachia 2024 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSwin 2:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Invictus Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
AVULUS
Batridersignature
Ekki · 21 game
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 16 games
Tusksignature
SoNNeikO · 16 games
Windrangersignature
Smiling Knight · 16 games
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 14 games
Pangoliersignature
Xibbe · 14 games
Sniperoften banned
Ekki · 14 games
Naga Sirensignature
SoNNeikO · 11 games
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
343 picks · 295 bans
Jakiro
331 picks · 253 bans
Pangolier
328 picks · 433 bans
Enchantress
315 picks · 534 bans
Rubick
299 picks · 288 bans
Windranger
296 picks · 421 bans
Dragon Knight
293 picks · 474 bans
Sand King
293 picks · 796 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 64%
Hero pool strength62% AVULUS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:22
AVULUS 60%Invictus Gaming 40%
The model gave 60% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 1:00:11.
Game 2prediction correct34:27
AVULUS 60%Invictus Gaming 40%
The model gave 60% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 1:00:23.
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 60%
Series resultAVULUS 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2