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PGL Wallachia 2024 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Alliancewin 2:0
series probability
17%83%
probability at match start · final 2:0
nounsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Alliance

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Kidaro · 23 games
57%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Nande · 20 games
50%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
dEsire · 20 games
75%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Mo13ei · 20 games
60%
Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 20 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Palantimos · 16 games
44%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mo13ei · 15 games
53%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Palantimos · 13 games
54%

nouns

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Fly · 23 games
52%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Lelis · 22 games
68%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Lelis · 21 game
71%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Yuma · 19 games
47%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Fly · 17 games
59%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Copy · 17 games
65%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Gunnar · 17 games
53%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Fly · 17 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
340 picks · 288 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
335 picks · 253 bans
45%
Pangolier
Pangolier
325 picks · 434 bans
48%
Enchantress
Enchantress
312 picks · 522 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
303 picks · 293 bans
51%
Windranger
Windranger
298 picks · 429 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
295 picks · 475 bans
45%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
286 picks · 342 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 55%
Hero pool strength52% nouns
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:10
Alliance 17%nouns 83%
The model gave 83% on nouns — the game was taken by Alliance in 37:09.
Game 2prediction missed23:15
Alliance 17%nouns 83%
The model gave 83% on nouns — the game was taken by Alliance in 34:12.
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 83%
Series resultAlliance 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2