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PGL Wallachia 2024 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Azure Raywin 2:1
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Azure Ray

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
fy · 21 game
57%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
fy · 17 games
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Faith_bian · 14 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Ori · 14 games
64%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
天命 · 13 games
23%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
lou · 13 games
46%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Ori · 12 games
58%
Snapfire
Snapfire
fy · 12 games
42%

Nigma Galaxy

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
GH · 18 games
89%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
OmaR · 16 games
56%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Fbz · 13 games
85%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
GH · 13 games
69%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
SumaiL · 13 games
77%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Fbz · 10 games
50%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Miracle- · 9 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Ghost · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
340 picks · 288 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
335 picks · 253 bans
45%
Pangolier
Pangolier
325 picks · 434 bans
48%
Enchantress
Enchantress
312 picks · 522 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
303 picks · 293 bans
51%
Windranger
Windranger
298 picks · 429 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
295 picks · 475 bans
45%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
286 picks · 342 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 70%
Hero pool strength60% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total58% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:13
Azure Ray 46%Nigma Galaxy 54%
The model gave 54% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 41:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
Razorlou
46% · 193 games54% · 38 games
Shadow FiendMiracle-
Shadow Fiend
Primal Beast
Primal Beastniu
55% · 280 games42% · 237 games
RubickSumaiL
Rubick
Grimstroke
GrimstrokepLAnet
52% · 149 games48% · 155 games
MarsNo!ob
Mars
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorFantasy
53% · 111 games48% · 110 games
SnapfireOmaR
Snapfire
52% · 193 games
EnchantressGH
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct20:34
Azure Ray 43%Nigma Galaxy 57%
The model gave 57% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 38:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
Razorlou
52% · 128 games55% · 132 games
LunaMiracle-
Luna
Beastmaster
Beastmasterniu
46% · 154 games37% · 32 games
VisageNo!ob
Visage
Dark Willow
Dark WillowpLAnet
54% · 200 games50% · 62 games
Sand KingSumaiL
Sand King
Disruptor
DisruptorFantasy
55% · 85 games42% · 169 games
PhoenixGH
Phoenix
53% · 172 games
ClockwerkOmaR
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction missed33:20
Azure Ray 46%Nigma Galaxy 54%
The model gave 54% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 42:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunalou
53% · 130 games50% · 76 games
Queen of PainSumaiL
Queen of Pain
Timbersaw
Timbersawniu
50% · 136 games42% · 125 games
MuertaMiracle-
Muerta
Earthshaker
EarthshakerpLAnet
56% · 57 games47% · 77 games
Sand KingNo!ob
Sand King
Phoenix
PhoenixFantasy
47% · 183 games55% · 54 games
IoGH
Io
51% · 174 games
Dark WillowOmaR
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 58%
Series resultAzure Ray 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3