PGL Wallachia 2024 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
nounswin 2:0series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Infinity Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
nouns
Crystal Maiden
Fly · 23 games
Miranasignature
Lelis · 22 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Lelis · 20 games
Windrangeroften banned
Yuma · 19 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Copy · 17 games
Pangolieroften banned
Gunnar · 17 games
Phoenixoften banned
Fly · 17 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Gunnar · 17 games
Infinity Esports
Hoodwinkoften banned
Kiri · 8 games
Techies
Hyko · 7 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Gardick · 6 games
Marcisignature
Yor · 6 games
Tinyoften banned
PiPi · 6 games
Underlordoften banned
kendallx · 5 games
Weaveroften banned
Genek · 5 games
Jakiro
Gardick · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
342 picks · 283 bans
Jakiro
341 picks · 254 bans
Pangolier
325 picks · 437 bans
Enchantress
310 picks · 517 bans
Rubick
304 picks · 294 bans
Windranger
303 picks · 431 bans
Dragon Knight
297 picks · 479 bans
Hoodwink
296 picks · 344 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 46%
Hero pool strength56% nouns
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:21
nouns 67%Infinity Esports 33%
The model gave 67% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 54:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistYuma
MedusaCostabile
Queen of PainCopy
PangolierILICH-
VisageGunnar
Storm SpiritPiPi
Nyx AssassinLelis
EnchantressPanda
Shadow DemonFly
Game 2prediction correct29:21
nouns 65%Infinity Esports 35%
The model gave 65% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 44:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaYuma
BristlebackCostabile
RazorCopy
Sand KingPiPi
MarsGunnar
VisageILICH-
EnchantressFly
OmniknightPanda
Dark WillowLelis
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 79%
Series resultnouns 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2