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PGL Wallachia 2024 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicwin 2:0
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Azure Rayloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Scofield · 25 games
48%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
Scofield · 21 game
57%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
KJ · 18 games
39%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Scofield · 16 games
56%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
K1 · 15 games
40%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
KJ · 13 games
54%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Davai · 13 games
54%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Scofield · 13 games
69%

Azure Ray

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Fantasy · 21 game
57%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
fy · 17 games
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Faith_bian · 14 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Ori · 14 games
64%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
天命 · 13 games
23%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
lou · 13 games
46%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Ori · 12 games
58%
Snapfire
Snapfire
fy · 12 games
42%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
340 picks · 254 bans
45%
Snapfire
Snapfire
340 picks · 283 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
325 picks · 435 bans
48%
Enchantress
Enchantress
310 picks · 517 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
304 picks · 294 bans
51%
Windranger
Windranger
303 picks · 431 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
297 picks · 479 bans
46%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
295 picks · 344 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 59%
Hero pool strength52% Heroic
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total52% Azure Ray
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:18
Heroic 48%Azure Ray 52%
The model gave 52% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Heroic in 32:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorParker
42% · 102 games60% · 107 games
Alchemistlou
Alchemist
Broodmother
Broodmother4nalog
42% · 48 games56% · 290 games
HoodwinkpLAnet
Hoodwink
Mars
MarsDavai
51% · 197 games53% · 194 games
Kunkkaniu
Kunkka
Snapfire
SnapfireScofield
48% · 135 games55% · 28 games
Witch DoctorFantasy
Witch Doctor
Clockwerk
ClockwerkKJ
36% · 137 games
Game 2prediction missed32:10
Heroic 48%Azure Ray 52%
The model gave 52% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Heroic in 25:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageParker
50% · 12 games64% · 45 games
Wraith Kinglou
Wraith King
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit4nalog
47% · 24 games47% · 74 games
MedusapLAnet
Medusa
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerDavai
53% · 95 games40% · 43 games
Night Stalkerniu
Night Stalker
Snapfire
SnapfireKJ
43% · 68 games52% · 116 games
JakiroFantasy
Jakiro
Clockwerk
ClockwerkScofield
51% · 79 games
Model check result
Model favoriteAzure Ray · 52%
Series resultHeroic 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2