European Pro League Season 38 · BO3
result vs prediction
VP.Prodigywin 2:0series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Balu Teamloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
VP.Prodigy
Shadow Shamansignature
JANTER · 28 games
Ringmaster
raregods · 25 games
Tiny
raregods · 23 games
Bounty Hunter
raregods · 17 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Katsura · 17 games
Tidehunteroften banned
takizawa · 16 games
Clinkzsignature
cutie · 15 games
Disruptor
JANTER · 15 games
Balu Team
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
611 picks · 386 bans
Rubick
507 picks · 278 bans
Phoenix
491 picks · 578 bans
Tiny
467 picks · 389 bans
Pangolier
416 picks · 578 bans
Puck
347 picks · 954 bans
Tusk
339 picks · 281 bans
Ember Spirit
334 picks · 500 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 31%
Hero pool strength50% Balu Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% VP.Prodigy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:35
VP.Prodigy 76%Balu Team 24%
The model gave 76% on VP.Prodigy — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 54:14.
Game 2prediction correct32:14
VP.Prodigy 76%Balu Team 24%
The model gave 76% on VP.Prodigy — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 24:35.
Model check result
Model favoriteVP.Prodigy · 76%
Series resultVP.Prodigy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2