?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Wallachia 2024 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
nounsloss 1:2
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:2
HULIGANIwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

nouns

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Fly · 23 games
52%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Lelis · 22 games
68%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Lelis · 20 games
70%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Yuma · 19 games
47%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Copy · 17 games
65%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Fly · 17 games
53%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Fly · 16 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Gunnar · 16 games
56%

HULIGANI

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
OneJey · 18 games
39%
Rubick
Rubick
Panto · 18 games
44%
Batrider
Batridersignature
OneJey · 17 games
65%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
OneJey · 15 games
33%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Panto · 14 games
79%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
OneJey · 14 games
64%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
re1bl · 14 games
57%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
OneJey · 13 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
344 picks · 282 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
342 picks · 255 bans
45%
Pangolier
Pangolier
333 picks · 441 bans
47%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
311 picks · 349 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
308 picks · 301 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
305 picks · 518 bans
51%
Windranger
Windranger
303 picks · 436 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
302 picks · 487 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 74%
Hero pool strength52% nouns
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct45:29
nouns 58%HULIGANI 42%
The model gave 58% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 1:31:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterYuma
50% · 71 game51% · 72 games
Shadow FiendCrystallis
Shadow Fiend
Sniper
SniperCopy
51% · 37 games45% · 79 games
Earth SpiritAdzantick
Earth Spirit
Snapfire
SnapfireLelis
52% · 72 games53% · 38 games
Winter WyvernTobi
Winter Wyvern
Primal Beast
Primal BeastGunnar
56% · 75 games46% · 14 games
Bounty HunterOneJey
Bounty Hunter
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorFly
50% · 33 games47% · 85 games
Elder TitanPanto
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction missed8:31
nouns 56%HULIGANI 44%
The model gave 56% on nouns — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 33:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaYuma
47% · 171 game54% · 106 games
Monkey KingCrystallis
Monkey King
Death Prophet
Death ProphetCopy
46% · 48 games58% · 149 games
Storm SpiritAdzantick
Storm Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierGunnar
45% · 267 games56% · 91 game
EnigmaTobi
Enigma
Pugna
PugnaLelis
41% · 102 games59% · 127 games
Naga SirenPanto
Naga Siren
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorFly
45% · 76 games50% · 191 game
Dark WillowOneJey
Dark Willow
Game 3prediction missed16:26
nouns 57%HULIGANI 43%
The model gave 57% on nouns — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 47:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingYuma
46% · 234 games50% · 205 games
PuckAdzantick
Puck
Tiny
TinyCopy
50% · 280 games51% · 149 games
RazorCrystallis
Razor
Visage
VisageGunnar
46% · 40 games57% · 112 games
EnigmaTobi
Enigma
Clockwerk
ClockwerkLelis
44% · 206 games48% · 253 games
EnchantressPanto
Enchantress
Bristleback
BristlebackFly
53% · 78 games55% · 119 games
AlchemistOneJey
Alchemist
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 62%
Series resultHULIGANI 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3